Southampton v Middlesbrough: Second leg set to explode! Here's why you should back a goal-heavy game at St. Mary's

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Tuesday, 12th May, 20:00
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Saints withstood the Boro barrage

Middlesbrough made an electric start to the first leg but, as has been the case multiple times already this season, they couldn't make that dominance count. They had 76% possession before the break, firing in 17 efforts, landing four on target and creating five big chances. It created a fantastic atmosphere around the stadium, yet the supporters went home wondering why the Teessiders couldn't make the breakthrough.

The second half was more evenly matched, with the hosts understandably unable to sustain those energy levels throughout the 90 minutes. Saints will be pleased to take a 0-0 draw back to St. Mary's, and they will quietly fancy their chances of winning the second leg.

Tonda Eckert set his side up to absorb pressure and stop Boro from creating chances in central areas. They approached the FA Cup games with Man City and Arsenal in a similar fashion, and it's a tactic which has been reasonably effective.

Nevertheless, that system fell apart with the poor performance of Cyle Larin, who barely had a sniff. Credit must be given to Dael Fry and Adilson Malanda, both of whom managed to keep the Canadian quiet.

Boro fans won't be short-changed

Saturday was hugely frustrating for the Teesside faithful, yet those who have been able to follow their side on the road lately will be feeling quietly optimistic.

This season, they've averaged 1.65 goals per game away from home (compared to 1.42 at the Riverside) and they're unbeaten in nine of their last 10. The only side to take maximum points off Boro were Coventry who were promoted as champions.

Although they were left frustrated at Ewood Park, they produced a wonderful display at Portman Road, and gave Wrexham plenty to think about on the final day of the season.

They have generally found it easier to be clinical on the road and if they can approach the game with the same tempo, they should be able to find a way through.

Southampton have failed to win their last two at home, with both games finishing 2-2. Saints have ample firepower, and Leo Scienza tends to be more effective at St. Mary's. They need Finn Azaz to be more effective with the former Boro man putting in a fairly anonymous performance in the first leg.

It finished 1-1 when the sides met here earlier in the campaign, and I don't expect Boro to be as wasteful on Tuesday night.

If you're searching for bigger odds, both teams to score two or more goals could be tempting at 19/54.80. The 2-2 scoreline has been frequent for each of these two offensively-minded sides.

Extra time may be required

There isn't a huge amount to separate these two sides despite the 6/52.20 odds for Southampton to win inside 90 minutes. Middlesbrough are tricky opponents on the road, and assuming that they aren't quite as profligate this time around, they should be able to stay in this game.

They are now unbeaten in all three meetings with the Saints, albeit with their 4-0 victory coming at a time when their opponents were in complete disarray.

There is a possibility that Hayden Hackney may return in time for this second leg, although both Aidan Morris and Riley McGree probably deserve to retain their places in the starting XI.

The Saints have dropped points in their last two home games and haven't managed to beat any of the top five teams at this stadium. This could easily go all the way.

If we back this selection in the Match Odds 90 market, we'll still be paid out in the event of any stoppage-time drama

Conway to find his shooting boots in time for the second leg

There are unlikely to be too many changes to the starting line-ups on Tuesday night. Tonda Eckert may opt for Ross Stewart, who led the line superbly in the FA Cup, with Jack Stephens likely to come back in if fit enough to feature.

Middlesbrough's team will probably look fairly similar, with the only question mark surrounding the return of the influential Hayden Hackney.

Despite failing to register on Saturday, Kim Hellberg is unlikely to rotate his frontline with both David Strelec and Tommy Conway likely to be given the nod.

The former Bristol City striker still tends to divide opinion amongst some fans, yet he works incredibly hard and took the joint-most shots at the weekend. He undoubtedly needs to improve his finishing, but he gets himself into good positions, and his teammates are likely to create chances again.

Seven of his 13 goals have come on the road this season and, with Boro being ever so slightly better on their travels, he could be worth backing as sixth-favourite in the anytime goalscorer market at 23/103.30

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