Sheffield United v Sunderland: Low-scoring and close Playoff Final is the stand-out Wembley selection

• Sheff Utd fair favourites

• A step too far for Sunderland?

• Oppose goals in Wembley showpiece

• Check out Ste Tudor's Build Ups Tips at the bottom of the page

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Sheffield United v Sunderland
Saturday May 24, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports

"We're a winning football team" - Wilder 

Sheffield United started the campaign as 16/117.00 sixth favourites to clinch top Championship honours. The Blades became just the third side in the history of the second-tier to win as many as 90 points yet fail to win promotion automatically, while only champions Leeds (156) spent more days inside the top-two positions than Chris Wilder's troops (143). 

The good news for United is, the team finishing third has won promotion via the play-offs (nine times) more than any other league position since the Championship rebrand in 2004-05. And the Blades arrive having finished 14 points ahead of their opponents in the regular season standings - the biggest points difference between two EFL play-off finalists. 

Sheff Utd warmed up for Wembley with two impressive semi-final successes over Bristol City and Wilder now has a selection dilemma for Saturday. The Blades have a full squad available for the trip to the capital following returns from injury for Ben Brereton Diaz, Femi Seriki and Tom Davies. Callum O'Hare is also pushing for a recall to the starting XI.

Wilder said, "I've got a real good group of players that can produce big moments and keep clean sheets and play on the big stage. We've won 30 games out of 48 this season. We're a winning football team; we're going for wins. We know how to win and that has got to be our focus. There are no guarantees, but I don't think we could have prepared any better."

Sunderland aim for the unexpected 

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Sunderland were chalked up as big as 25/126.00 in the ante-post title betting for the Championship title yet the Black Cats topped the table before November's international break. Regis Le Bris' side weren't able to sustain their fast start, though the Wearsiders spent a total of 266 days inside the top-six - the most of any side in the division.

Although Sunderland enjoyed a superb campaign compared to pre-season expectations, results deserted the Black Cats in the run-in, losing each of their final five regular season fixtures - no side had ever arrived at the play-offs in such poor form.  However, Le Bris' boys bounced back in dramatic circumstances to see off Coventry in extra-time of the semi-finals.

Romaine Mundle has since emerged as a major injury doubt for Saturday with a hamstring injury and there are growing question marks over what extent he will be able to feature. The Sunderland squad is likely to be similar to that from the semi finals with Patrick Roberts also being monitored, though there's hope Aji Alese could return to the fold here.

Speaking ahead of the Wembley showdown, Le Bris said: "We have another step to go. It was important to celebrate, because we have already achieved so much, but we want more. The discipline and togetherness of the group has been really impressive. Now we have to be the best version of Sunderland as possible, and we will fight until the end for a result."

Blades command market respect

Sheffield United have won five of their last seven meetings with Sunderland across all competitions (W5-D0-L2), though the Blades were beaten in their most recent head-to-head encounter against the Black Cats back in January. In fact, both matches between the two sides in the regular season ended in favour of the home side.

Sheff Utd 2.466/4 are hoping to break their Wembley hoodoo here. The Blades come into this clash having failed to win any of their last seven matches here (W0-D1-L6) since the 1925 FA Cup final, whilst the Blades have also failed to earn promotion in any of their four previous play-off finals. Nevertheless, Chris Wilder's charges are deserved and fair favourites.

Sunderland 3.4549/20 endured a seven-game winless streak at Wembley between 1985 and 2019 but have since twice triumphed at the home of football. For the third season running, the Wearsiders fielded the youngest average starting XI, although the underdogs did tend to toil against top-six rivals this term (W2-D4-L4), and were winless at top-eight opposition.

Oppose goals at Wembley

It's dubbed the most valuable match in world football - promotion to the Premier League will boost the winners' coffers by at least £170m - and the magnitude of the match can often cripple clubs on their big day at Wembley. Perhaps unsurprisingly with so much at stake, Championship play-off finals are rarely high-scoring affairs.

Since the famous Sunderland 4-4 Charlton play-off final 27 years ago, 18 (69%) Championship curtain-closers have reached the 90-minute mark with fewer than three goals - 54% of those 26 encounters produced no more than a solitary strike, including eight of the most recent 12.

Meanwhile, only six of the past 24 finals have paid out for Both Teams To Score backers, potentially highlighting the value in going against the grain and opposing goals. With that in mind, I'm happy to back Both Teams To Score - No here at 1.774/5. Both recent and historic trends suggest we're unlikely to see a Championship play-off final shootout.

Three of the four Championship play-off semi-finals saw BTTS No backers collect, whilst only the automatic promotion pair of Burnley and Leeds recorded more regular season clean sheets than Sheffield United (22) and Sunderland (17).

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