Sheffield United v Burnley: Back cagey start as promotion rivals clash

• Blades have won two in a row
• Clarets on great run
• Bramall Lane record worry for visitors
• Back a tight first-half

Sheffield United v Burnley,
Saturday 5 November 12.30
Live on Sky Sports Football

Blades back to winning ways

After a six game winless run, Paul Heckingbottom will be mightily relieved to have seen his side pick up the maximum six points from trips to WBA and Bristol City. They were dominant at The Hawthorns, taking a two-goal lead in the first half through Iliman Ndiaye and Oli McBurnie and seeing out the game comfortably.

The midweek win against Bristol City was a different story, with the Blades fortunate to win 1-0. The hosts were the better team throughout and squandered plenty of chances. Infogol has the xG for the game as 1.56-0.90 in Bristol City's favour, with 0.5 of Sheffield United's allocation coming from Ndiaye's goal. They were also outshot 16-4 and will have to improve for this visit of the league leaders and title favourites.

Clarets don't know when they are beaten

Vincent Kompany's Burnley have developed from being a team who struggled to hold onto leads to the comeback kings of the EFL. They have won their last four games and had been behind in three of them. The run started when coming back from 2-0 down to beat Sunderland 4-2, then continued last weekend when a late Anass Zaroury header saw off Reading 2-1 after they'd gone behind early in the second half.

The midweek 3-2 win over Rotherham was maybe the most dramatic, with the Millers going 1-0 and then 2-1 up in what would have been a huge scalp for new manager Matt Taylor. Rotherham were then reduced to 10 men but went into 10 minutes of injury-time with their noses still in front. But two late goals saw Kompany jumping for joy down the Turf Moor touchline and saw his side move five points clear at the top of the Championship.

Burnley need to bury Bramall curse

Bramall Lane has not been a happy place for Burnley fans in recent history, they have won just one of their last 19 away league games against Sheffield United (D5 L13), dating back to a 3-2 win back in December 2008.

This looks like a perfect time to end that unwanted run, with all the trends pointing in the away team's favour. They are unbeaten in their last seven away league games (W3 D4) and are the only side in the EFL yet to lose on a Saturday this season, winning six and drawing three of their games on that day.

Sheffield United, on the other hand, are winless in their last four home league games (D3 L1), conceding more goals in those games (7) than in their previous 20 at Bramall Lane combined (6).

No goals in the first half fits the bill

Both sides have seen a fair amount of drama in their games so far this season, but this has mainly come late in games. Looking at the first-half Championship table, Burnley have gone into half-time level in 10 of their 19 games, while Sheffield United have done so in 8 of their 18. These are amongst the highest figures in the league, with only Preston (14) and Rotherham (11) seeing more half-time draws.

The reason for these cagey first periods is seemingly the strong defensive record of both sides. Sheffield United have kept a clean sheet in 13 of 18 so far, and Burnley in 10 of their 19 and both of these ratios go up when looking at the Blades at home and the Clarets on the road.

This is a game with plenty at stake between the two promotion favourites at a time in the season when not-dropping points to the other is maybe more important than throwing caution to the wind looking for a win. Therefore both the context of the game and the stats suggest that the 15/8 for Under 0.5 first-half goals is the value play.