Rotherham v Middlesbrough: Oppose goals in key survival contest

Mark O'Haire
20 April 2021
3 min read

Rotherham have failed to score in five of their past six league fixtures

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Relegation-haunted Rotherham welcome mid-table Middlesbrough as the Championship campaign heats up. Mark O'Haire shares his favourite fancy from Wednesday night.

"Under 2.5 Goals has proven profitable in nine of Rotherham’s most recent 13 Championship games, with eight of those encounters producing a maximum of one goal"

Rotherham v Middlesbrough
Wednesday April 21, 18:00
Sky Sports

Rotherham fall short

Defiant Rotherham boss Paul Warne says the Millers can win their fight to stay in the Championship despite suffering two huge setbacks in three days. Third-bottom United lost 1-0 to Birmingham on Sunday after being beaten by the same scoreline against Coventry on Thursday to remain points behind nearest survival rivals Derby with two games in-hand.

Following a desperately disappointing no-show against Coventry, Warne's men had numerous opportunities to go in front against Birmingham before falling to an 88th-minute goal, and the Rotherham supremo said, "The lads are hugely disappointed but they are still in it. They are hurting but they will lick their wounds and get ready for another battle.

Warne added: "I thought our performance was good. We didn't take our chances. If you don't score at this level there's always the chance you will get done. We didn't deserve to be on the losing side of that game. If it was in October we would not be feeling as sore about it. We need points and wins and we came up just short."

Warnock focussing on next season

Middlesbrough manager Neil Warnock believes he has a clearer idea of who should be at the club next season and who shouldn't after questions he had were answered in Boro's 2-1 defeat to QPR on Saturday. The Teessiders made a dreadful start at The Riverside, falling two goals behind inside the opening 20 minutes, before battling back into contention.

Yannick Bolasie grabbed a goal soon before the half-hour mark and Middlesbrough saw plenty more chances go begging as they failed to capitalise on a man advantage for over 30 minutes, suffering a fourth Championship defeat in five games. With the play-offs now a mathematical impossibility, Warnock has already turned his attentions to next season.

Warnock said, "In many respects it's frustrating and disappointing, but I thought I got a few answers there today. I think I know now who I've got to get out and who I've got to keep and build on. We've got lads that don't want to be here and I've got to make sure I weed it out and get rid of the ones I don't want and help the lads that do want to be here."

Millers outsiders

Rotherham and Middlesbrough have crossed swords just seven times this century with the Teessiders enjoying a W4-D1-L2 supremacy in head-to-heads. However, the Millers were cushy 3-0 winners in the reverse encounter back in January with Matt Crooks, Matt Smith and Ryan Giles all getting amongst the goals in United's equal biggest win of the season.

Rotherham 2.829/5 boast the Championship's worst home return in 2020/21. The Millers have managed just W5-D3-L13 at the New York Stadium, although their results have remained reasonable when taking teams outside of the current top-nine (W10-D5-L9). Unfortunately for Paul Warne's side, fixture congestion and fatigue is a major issue.

Middlesbrough 2.6813/8 flirted with the top-six for the majority of the season but Boro's inconsistent efforts can be traced back to Boxing Day. Since Christmas, the Teessiders have tabled only W7-D3-L12 to drop back into mid-table obscurity with only four clean sheets kept in those 22 outings. Neil Warnock's side are already looking towards 2021/22.

Oppose goals

With pressure mounting and points for survival becoming ever more precious, Rotherham have toiled in the final-third. The Millers have been nilled in five of their past six league fixtures and scored multiple goals in only one of their last eight New York Stadium showdowns. Unsurprisingly, low-scoring contests have been rife in that same sequence.

Under 2.5 Goals 1.695/7 has proven profitable in nine of Rotherham's most recent 13 Championship games, with eight of those encounters producing a maximum of one goal. Both Teams To Score was a successful wager in just three of those 13 fixtures and ticking 'No' in the Both Teams To Score column holds plenty of appeal against at 1.9520/21.

Middlesbrough's carefree attitude is an obvious danger to the wager, although this play has provided a pay-out in four of the visitors' seven matches since early May.

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