Preston v Leeds: Oppose PNE at Deepdale on Boxing Day

• Preston rate as a bottom-three outfit

• Ryan Lowe under pressure at Deepdale

• Leeds eager to build on impressive

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Preston v Leeds
Boxing Day, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

Preston 6.25/1 manager Ryan Lowe admitted he feels like he is 'letting people down' after overseeing North End's gut-wrenching late 2-1 loss at Swansea on Friday. Substitute Liam Millar's second-half strike appeared to have given the Lilywhites a battling point in South Wales, only for the visitors to be dealt a 95th minute sucker-punch to leave empty-handed.

PNE have now suffered nine defeats in their last 15 fixtures and Lowe was visibly dejected in his post-match interview, saying: "I am disappointed. It's still raw. I am gutted that we just couldn't see it through as I thought we were well worthy of a point - the lads carried out the game plan to a tee. Unfortunately, we have been undone by one of our own mistakes."

Lowe had made six changes to his starting XI - name a side flooded with experience. Dai Cornell made his Preston league debut in-goal at Swansea, whilst Andrew Hughes, Ryan Ledson, Robbie Brady, Duane Holmes and Ched Evans were also brought in as Preston reverted to a box midfield. However, Brady picked up an injury and will be absent here.

Leeds 1.618/13 boss Daniel Farke stopped short of describing the Whites' 4-0 dismantling of fellow Championship high-fliers Ipswich as the 'perfect performance' but still piled on the praise to his players following their standout display of the season. The damage was largely done in the first-half as the rampant hosts raced into a 3-0 advantage at Elland Road.

Within two minutes of the restart, Leeds made it four as Joel Piroe completed the scoring following first-half goals from Pascal Struijk, an own goal and Crysencio Summerville's corner. Farke's side continued to dominate proceedings thereafter, suffocating Ipswich in the press whilst producing a penetrative and fluid display in forward areas.

Speaking post-match, Farke said: "It was probably our most mature performance of the season - we were all over them and fully deserved our 4-0 win. It was incredible work from my players. In all phases, we were outstanding. After 80 minutes you are 4-0 up, and we still did not want to give any chance away. The clean sheet was the most pleasing element."

Difficult to dismiss Leeds

Preston led the Championship after eight rounds of action (W7-D1-L0), although North End have struggled to match those consistently impressive early season results since (W3-D4-L9), managing a solitary clean sheet across their last 18 second-tier fixtures. The Lilywhites have tumbled into mid-table, winning once in their last seven Deepdale dates (W1-D2-L4).

Surprisingly, Expected Points (xP) rankings have PNE rated as a bottom-three outfit, returning an underwhelming 40% Expected Goals (xG) ratio overall. Ryan Lowe's troops have won the non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) battle in only four of their Championship contests this season with home performances proving particularly poor.

Leeds haven't always been the most reliable operators outside of Elland Road under Daniel Farke, posting W5-D2-L4 on their travels. However, underlying performance data suggests the Whites are more than capable of clinching top honours on Boxing Day, with the visitors' exceptional firepower also difficult to dismiss at Deepdale.

With Leeds a little too short to support in the main markets, we can back Leeds to win and Over 1.5 Goals at a much more palatable 4/51.80, essentially eliminating the 1-0 correct score - 11 of the Whites' 13 Championship victories this season have seen our proposed play pay-out.

Read more Championship previews and tips here.