Plymouth v Luton: Keep Hatters onside at Home Park

• Plymouth xG losers in five of six outings

• Luton arrive off back-to-back victories

• Hatters can avoid Home Park defeat

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Plymouth v Luton
Friday September 27, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Rooney pleased with Plymouth progress

Plymouth boss Wayne Rooney says he is pleased with how his side is improving despite a 1-0 loss at Championship leaders West Brom. The Pilgrims' defeat came a week after beating previous table-toppers Sunderland 3-2 at Home Park but marks a significant improvement from the opening weekend when Argyle were thrashed 4-0 at Sheffield Wednesday.

Rooney said, "I'm disappointed with the result, but there's a lot of positives. We're showing we can compete with the best teams in the league. We're more than capable of causing teams problems, we're getting more comfortable with the ball, and we look like a good solid group. Since the first game of the season, we've competed in every game."

Plymouth conceded with seven minutes to go to lose 1-0 at home to Stoke at the end of August before getting a stoppage-time winner to beat Sunderland a fortnight ago. Josh Maja's goal after an hour was the difference at The Hawthorns last time out but Argyle had more possession and matched their opponents' number of shots on goal.

Edwards demands more despite Luton win

Luton chief Rob Edwards admitted, he is still searching for the right 'recipe' after what he labelled a 'sloppy' performance for large periods despite managing to beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 at Kenilworth Road last weekend. Carlton Morris came off the bench to strike twice for the Hatters in the final 13 minutes, turning the tables on the Owls.

However, Edwards knew Luton had not been good enough in the early stages, saying: "We've just got to find that right recipe at the moment, especially for the start of the game. If we don't play with the intensity that we finished with, then we're going to make it difficult for ourselves. But we have a squad for a reason and they made an impact, absolutely."

Reuell Walters started in place of the injured Amari'i Bell and may keep his place here, whilst Tom Krauss, Zack Nelson and Morris will all hope to be involved from the off after making a positive impact in Edwards' triple-change on the hour mark that saw Marvelous Nakamba, Liam Walsh and Walters withdrawn. Victor Moses is also pushing for a start.

Town odds-on at Home Park

Plymouth and Luton have met 10 times in league action over the past decade with Argyle returning an inferior W2-D2-L4 record against the Hatters. Surprisingly, the Pilgrims have failed to even score in each of their last four Home Park meetings with Town, collecting a solitary point in that four-game sample since when the two teams were in League Two.

Results-wise, Plymouth 4.10 have certainly improved since their opening day calamity at Hillsborough, although the Devonians have still been rated Expected Goals (xG) losers in five of their six Championship dates thus far. The hosts rank second-bottom for Expected Points (xP) and prop up the division for xG supremacy, whilst giving up over 20 shots per-game.

Luton 1.9620/21 have posted back-to-back victories to move into mid-table but the underlying metrics (W2-D1-L3) suggest Rob Edwards' outfit have underachieved according to the data. Exclude penalties and only four clubs have allowed a lower xG figure across their opening six showdowns, and the Hatters have allowed a solitary goal in their first three away days.

Hatters can pinch at least a point

Matches involving Plymouth and Luton have rarely escalated into high-scoring shootouts thus far. Four of Argyle's previous five have fallen Under 2.5 Goals 6/52.20, and although two of Luton's past five have produced three goals or more, the Hatters' away days have been tight affairs with all three fixtures featuring a maximum of just one strike.

With that in-mind, I'm happy to take the opportunity to support Luton Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals at 4/51.80 on Friday night. The visitors are ranked eighth on Expected Points (xP) and have shown a solidity away from Kenilworth Road to suggest they're well capable of grabbing a 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, or 2-1 success, whilst also having the low-scoring draw onside.

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