EFL Championship

EFL Opta Stats: Six Tuesday tips from the Championship

Jack Critchley
09 Apr 2024
3:00 min read

Leicester Boss Enzo Maresca — Enzo Maresca will be hoping that his side can take a step closer to a top flight return

It's the final full set of midweek fixtures in the Championship and Jack Critchley has used the latest Opta Stats to select his best bets for Tuesday evening...

Rejuvenated Foxes to march on
Simms to slice through Saints
Tight encounter at Hillsborough
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Millwall vs Leicester

Barren Lions to draw a blank at the Den

Opta Stat:

"Millwall have lost each of their last three league meetings with Leicester City, last losing four in a row against the Foxes between 1947 and 1969"

Although three of their last four matches have been away from home, Millwall have hit yet another slump and they remain firmly in the relegation picture. At home, they are much stronger and they are unbeaten in three at the Den, yet they appear to be lacking ideas in the final third and managed just six shots against Huddersfield at the weekend. When taking on the top seven sides here, the hosts have netted just twice and they could struggle to test the Leicester defence.

The Foxes got back to winning ways at the weekend and having seen both Leeds and Ipswich drop points, they will be head into this fixture with their heads held high. They don't tend to keep many clean sheets, but this is a decent chance to strengthen their defensive statistics and its difficult to envisage them becoming too troubled by Neil Harris' men.

Betfair Bet:

Back Leicester to Win to Nil at 9/52.80

Plymouth vs QPR

Pilgrims to end their Home Park hoodoo

Opta Stat:

"Plymouth Argyle are unbeaten in their last seven home league meetings with Plymouth Argyle (W4 D3) with this their first time hosting QPR since August 2009 (1-1)"

Plymouth picked up a vital three points on Friday night as they consigned Rotherham to relegation. The Pilgrims had 18 shots throughout the 90 minutes and looked revitalised under the temporary management of Neil Dewsnip. The caretaker boss dropped all of the January signings and went back to the players who helped the club achieve promotion and it appeared to work. Dewsnip was in charge for a short period earlier in the campaign and did a relatively solid job and we can expect the hosts to be highly competitive in this one.

QPR were defeated to Sheffield Wednesday at the weekend and Marti Cifuentes will be hoping that his side can put that display firmly behind them. The Rs have lost just one of their last seven away games, although those matches have contained just eight goals and have all been extremely close. This could go either way, but the price on Plymouth is too big considering they appear to be buoyed by Ian Foster's dismissal.

Betfair Bet:

Back Plymouth Draw No Bet at 6/52.20

Sheffield Wednesday vs Norwich

Close encounter in South Yorkshire

Opta Stat:

"Sheffield Wednesday have lost just one of their last six league games at Hillsborough (W3 D2), though are without a win in their previous two (D1 L1)"

Sheffield Wednesday got a much-needed victory at the weekend as they benefitted from a slice of good fortune at Loftus Road. The Owls are far stronger at Hillsborough and they will be looking to continue their good run of form in front of a decent crowd. They've lost just twice here since December 23rd (vs Leeds and Coventry) and have conceded just four times across their last six home matches.

Norwich were victorious in the East Anglian derby at the weekend and they will be full of confidence heading into this midweek tie. They aren't as reliable on the road and have won just twice on their travels since the beginning of December. They might win this, but it's likely to be tight.

Betfair Bet:

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 9/101.90

Southampton vs Coventry

Simms' wonderful form to continue

Opta Stat:

"Since 23^rd December, no Championship side has won more away games in the competition than Coventry (6), including each of their last two"

Southampton are going to have settle for a top six spot and this fixture could realistically be replayed in the play-offs next month. Russell Martin has come in for some criticism as the Saints fans have watched their automatic promotion hopes fade away. The hosts won every single home match between the end of October and the beginning of February, yet they've now failed to win three of the last four here and could be suceptible on Tuesday night. With ten goals conceded across their last five home matches, the Coventry strikeforce will be rubbing their hands together with glee.

Coventry were excellent against Leeds at the weekend and although the fixture list has been fairly unkind to them, they have a chance of getting something from this tie. They have an in-form striking duo and Ellis Simms will be hoping he can continue his outstanding run of form. He has netted in each of Coventry's last four matches and 14 of his 18 goals (across all competitions) have been scored since Valentines Day. He is full of confidence and his profitable spell appears unlikely to end here.

Betfair Bet:

Back Ellis Simms to Score Anytime at 9/43.25

Preston vs Huddersfield

PNE to potentially edge a tight game

Opta Stat:

"Huddersfield Town ended a run of 16 away league visits to Preston North End without a win (D7 L9) when winning this fixture 2-1 last season; the Terriers haven't won back-to-back meetings on the road against North End since February 1956"

Preston have a tricky set of fixtures remaining with Leicester, Norwich and West Brom still to come. Although Ryan Lowe's side can still mathematically make the top six, with those games awaiting, it feels like they may miss out. Nevertheless, they will see this as a winnable fixture and their recent performances have been solid enough. They were undone by a single defensive error against Birmingham and could easily have taken three points at the weekend. They've lost just once here in 2024 and could be a tough nut to crack.

Huddersfield fans breathed a huge sigh of relief as Rhys Healey's injury-time goal kept the club's hopes of survival alive. The Terriers have scored 20 away goals in as many games this season and although they are unbeaten in three of their last four on the road, they don't have enough firepower in the squad. They've netted 2+ goals on the road just four times on their travels this season and have scored just once across their last three.

Betfair Bet:

Back Preston to Win or Draw and Under 2.5 Goals at 21/202.05

Leeds vs Sunderland

Leeds to pick up three points at Elland Road

Opta Stat:

"Leeds are yet to taste defeat at Elland Road in the Championship this season (W16 D4), while they could record 10 successive home wins in the top two tiers of English football for the first time since August 1969 (run of 13)"

It got quite nervy at Elland Road against Hull and with the Whites having dropped points against Coventry at the weekend, the pressure is starting to ramp up and the fans will be expecting a positive performance. The hosts will happily settle for a scrappy victory and with Sunderland having shown signs of life over the last couple of weeks, a 1-0 win would be suffice.

The Black Cats are still struggling to collect maximum points, yet they have outshot their opponents in the majority of their recent outings and are unlikely to simply roll over. Nevertheless, they aren't scoring enough and still look capable of conceding a sloppy goal or two. I don't think they will get thumped here.

Betfair Bet:

Back Leeds to Win and Under 3.5 Goals at 1/12.00

Now read more Championship previews and tips here.

Recommended bets

Back Leicester to Win to Nil @ 9/52.80

Back Under 2.5 Goals in Sheffield Wednesday vs Norwich @ 8/131.61

Back Ellis Simms Anytime Goalscorer @ 9/43.25

Jack Critchley's 2023-24 P/L

Staked: 370.00

Returned: 364.12

P/L: -5.88

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.