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Norwich W5-D1-L0 at home vs the bottom-nine
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Canaries rank second on home Expected Points (xP)
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Oxford have lost 11 of 12 trips to the top-14
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Norwich v Oxford
Friday March 7, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports
Norwich frustrated by late dropped points
Norwich boss Johannes Hoff Thorup said his side's failure to take maximum points from their trip to fellow play-off contenders Blackburn was his main frustration last weekend - not any controversy over refereeing decisions. The Canaries scored in the 90th minute against a side who had just been reduced to 10 men but conceded a 96th minute equaliser.
A win would have left Norwich two points off a play-off spot, though they now trail the top-six by four after missing opportunities to kill the game off. Thorup said, "It's the approach in the last three minutes I'm frustrated about. I let the players know it's not acceptable because, up until the goal, we played such a professional game away from home."
Midfielder Kenny McLean will return to the squad for Friday night's fixture with the Scotsman available again after illness, whilst the versatile Callum Doyle has served his two-match suspension. However, forward Lewis Dobbin is sidelined after a first-half exit at Ewood Park with a calf problem and there are also doubts over left back Lucien Mahovo.
Rowett pleased with Oxford improvement
Oxford head coach Gary Rowett saluted a battling display despite seeing his Yellows side slip to a third straight loss with a 3-2 defeat by Coventry last time out. The U's twice came from behind to draw level with the Sky Blues in a frantic nine-minute period that saw three goals between the two sides, before the visitors bagged a winner at the Kassam Stadium.
Speaking post-match, Rowett said: "It was nice to get back on it and look more dangerous and create more chances. Even in this recent run of form I look at all the games that have been close and it is little moments. I thought we have been incredibly competitive. You didn't see a team feeling sorry for themselves, we kept going and fighting."
Despite now failing to win any of their past seven Championship matches, Oxford at least scored their first goals after four games without finding the net. Rowett opted to start Ole Romeny centrally behind Mark Harris in attack and the pair linked up well in the final-third, whilst Przemyslaw Placheta also providing plenty of threat from the flanks.
Norwich and Oxford have only crossed swords seven times in league action since 1996-97 and the two teams have played out an equal W3-D1-L3 during that period with the U's winning the reverse encounter between the pair 4-2 back in August. However, the Canaries are historically W6-D3-L1 when welcoming the Yellows to Carrow Road in league action.
Norwich 1.618/13 have managed a solitary success in five coming into this clash, though Johannes Hoff Thorup's have been strong opposition at their Norfolk base this term (W8-D6-L3). The Canaries have been particularly prolific here when welcoming the lesser lights, posting W5-D1-L0 at home against the bottom-nine, scoring 24 goals in those six outings.
Oxford 5.204/1 enjoyed a nine-game unbeaten streak after Christmas to climb clear of relegation trouble, though the Yellows have since embarked on a seven-match winless run (W0-D3-L4), failing to score on five occasions and shipping multiple goals in each of their past three. The U's have also lost 11 of their 12 previous away trips to teams in the top-14.
Norwich sit second on home Expected Points (xP) across the campaign, highlighting the Canaries threat. City have won the Expected Goals (xG) battle in 13 of their 17 encounters here and their menacing record when taking on bottom-half dwellers make the home side justified and worthy short-priced favourites on Friday night. So how do we get them onside?
The best solution is to back Norwich to win and Under 4.5 Goals at 4/51.80. The Canaries clearly have the capacity to cut loose, though Oxford's approach under Gary Rowett suggests this match is unlikely to escalate into a five-goal game - the visitors have seen 11 of their last 13 dates deliver Under 2.5 Goals with an average of just 1.92 goals per-game.
This wager has won in 10 of Oxford's 12 away trips to teams inside the top-14 and a repeat holds plenty of appeal at the price.
Back Norwich to win and Under 4.5 Goals @