Millwall v Burnley: Back defences to be on top at The Den

• Millwall command respect

• Burnley overachieving?

• Defences on top at The Den

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Millwall v Burnley
Sunday November 3, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports

Millwall win away

Millwall bagged their first away Championship victory of the season last time out as Casper de Norre struck a 90th-minute winner at Swansea to claim a 1-0 success. The Swans had controlled the contest for long spells but were unable to find a way through the Lions' stubborn rearguard with goalkeeper Lukas Jensen pulling off a series of fine saves.

With Swansea pushing for a winner, Neil Harris' side countered through Femi Azeez and his low cross was turned in by De Norre from point-blank range to extend Millwall's unbeaten streak to four. Harris was particularly pleased having made four changes to his side with Danny McNamara, Ryan Wintle, Duncan Watmore and Macaulay Langstaff all returning.

Speaking post-match, Harris said: "Obviously I'm delighted. I have sat in front of the press and dressing room a few times this season and talked about not getting what we deserved from games. But today we maybe got a little bit more than we deserved. It wasn't one of our strongest performances, but we hung in there and the application was immense."

Burnley fail to make dominance pay

Burnley boss Scott Parker insists there's plenty more improvements for his side to make despite being pleased with their overall display in a frustrating 0-0 draw against QPR at Turf Moor last weekend. The Clarets had 75% of the ball, forced 16 corners and won the touches in the box count 43-6 yet failed to convert any of their 22 attempts at goal.

Despite the scoreline, Parker described the performance as one of Burnley's best this term, saying: "We've knocked on the door all game and reduced them to practically nothing. We just fell a bit short. There are parts where we can be better - 22 shots and only four on target - but we'll keep moving and progressing. Just need to be a bit cute and clever."

Burnley will be forced into one change with Zian Flemming ineligible to face his parent club. With Lyle Foster still sidelined by injury, Parker is light on options in the number nine position. Elsewhere, Jordan Beyer, Joe Worrall, Hannes Delcroix, Aaron Ramsey, Manuel Benson are all out but Hjalmar Ekdal, Nathan Redmond and Jeremy Sarmiento could return.

Lions no easy meat

Millwall have failed to take top honours in each of their last six Championship meetings with Burnley (W0-D3-L3), tasting victory just once in their past eight league dates against the Clarets. The Lions have also managed a solitary success in 12 home showdowns against Burnley, though seven of those tussles have ended all-square (W1-D7-L4) since 1998.

Millwall 2.9015/8 are three points adrift of the top-six, yet the Bermondsey boys have impressed for large swathes of the season. Neil Harris' rigid outfit are ranked third on Expected Points (xP) with only two teams generating more non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) - the Lions have also won the xG battle in eight of their 12 outings this term.

Burnley 2.9015/8 sit second, though the Clarets have overachieved according to the data. Scott Parker's side are ninth on xP, with only Portsmouth and Plymouth producing a lower npxG figure. The visitors also sit second-bottom for Big Chances created - though the Lancashire outfit have shipped just five goals thus far, keeping six clean sheets in their last eight.

Oppose goals at The Den

In a tricky game to call - Millwall underachieving based on their eye-catching underlying metrics, and Burnley overperforming - the standout solution here is to oppose goals. Millwall have seen just 15 goals across their last 10 Championship contests, six of which have produced Under 1.5 Goals with Both Teams To Score 'No' 1.774/5 winning in 7/10.

Burnley have leaked just twice in eight outings - over 12 hours of football - with the Clarets already claiming seven clean sheets in 12 second-tier matches. Nine of Burnley's past 10 league games have featured Under 2.5 Goals and the visitors have seen BTTS No pay-out on eight occasions since suffering Premier League relegation. A repeat appeals at The Den.

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