Middlesbrough v Birmingham: Back Boro to overcome dreary Blues

Middlesbrough v Birmingham
Saturday January 16, 12:30
Sky Sports

Middlesbrough show character after tough week

Middlesbrough exited the FA Cup last week with a 2-1 defeat at Brentford but Neil Warnock was pleased with his players' battling display at the end of a chaotic week that saw the club hit by a Covid outbreak, reflected in a much-changed Teessiders line-up. Boro's first-team squad was obliterated with their squad of 18 players made up of eight under-23 players.

Only Marc Bola, Marcus Tavernier, Marcus Browne and Chuba Akpom retained their places in the starting XI, with the rest of the starting XI made up of fringe players with a point to prove as well as debutants Jordan Archer and academy graduate Hayden Hackney. Nevertheless, Middlesbrough put in a spirited performance that earned plenty of praise.

Browne was stretchered off and will be absent for Saturday after dislocating his kneecap, whilst Jonny Howson remains sidelined but Warnock remains hopeful that the bulk of his key players will be available again after Covid-related issues. George Saville and Paddy McNair should return to the fold having not travelled to the capital last weekend.

Birmingham battered by Man City

Birmingham suffered a chastening FA Cup defeat to Manchester City last Sunday as the gulf in class between the two teams was highlighted by a first-half Citizens masterclass. A virtuoso display from Kevin De Bruyne gave the Premier League outfit easy passage against shellshocked Blues with all three goals in the 3-0 loss arriving inside the first 33 minutes.

Aitor Karanka's game-plan was to keep it tight early on and allow pressure to build on Pep Guardiola's men. It never happened, with Blues behind after eight minutes as City dominated almost straight from the kick-off. Birmingham kept things tighter in the second period but in truth they were hopelessly over-matched and managed just 26% of the ball.

Speaking post-match, Karanka said: "We finished the game in the way we should have started it. I said before the game that if we were going to defend for 90 minutes, then it would be impossible. We should have been more aggressive from the beginning. We approached the second half much better, and made the game more difficult for them."

Boro boast strong Riverside record

Middlesbrough ran out 4-1 winners when the two teams met earlier this season at St Andrew's, a seventh success Boro have enjoyed in their past 13 fixtures with Birmingham (W7-D5-L1). The Reds also boast a strong W12-D7-L1 return when welcoming Blues to Teesside, a record that includes 11 home triumphs in their most recent 15 head-to-heads.

Middlesbrough 1.875/6 have collected four Championship victories in their most recent five encounters and have built their top-six challenge upon a strong Riverside record (W7-D2-L1). Boro have shipped only four goals as hosts and Neil Warnock's troops have dispatched all six visitors below them in the standings, whilst conceding a solitary strike.

Birmingham 4.707/2 have bagged just five wins in 23 Championship contests under Aitor Karanka in 2020/21, and Blues come into this clash off the back of five league losses in six. Under the Spaniard's safety-first attitude, City are rarely overawed, particularly on their travels, but goalmouth action can be scarce, leading to an abnormally-high draw return.

Take the Teessiders in low-scoring tussle

Matches at the Riverside Stadium have rarely been thrill-a-minute affairs with games averaging only 1.90 goals per-game. Even so, four of those 10 tussles have breached the Over 2.5 Goals 2.407/5 barrier, although it's difficult to see a repeat on Saturday considering Middlesbrough's defensive strength at their Teesside base.

Birmingham have seen just 1.55 goals per-away-game under Aitor Karanka's watch, with eight of their 11 outings on the road producing fewer than three strikes. Blues have fired 10 blanks thus far, including five times on their travels, suggesting a narrow home victory could be on the cards yet again.

Rather than support the win to nil, I prefer to take Middlesbrough to succeed alongside Under 3.5 Goals for an 11/10 shot on the Same Game Multi. The selection allows us to have the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1 correct scores onside - all seven of Boro's home victories have come via these four results.