Luton v West Brom Tips: Back both sides to score at The Kenny

• Luton's rearguard is stretched

• Albion without key centre-backs

• Defensive absentees could be exposed

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Luton v West Brom
Friday November 1, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Edwards under pressure at Luton

Luton boss Rob Edwards admitted he felt as 'bad' as he has ever felt in football after seeing his side fritter away a 2-0 lead to suffer a 3-2 defeat against Coventry last weekend. The Hatters were two goals up at the interval thanks to Carlton Morris' penalty and Elijah Adebayo's calm finish, although it was never a position they looked comfortable in.

Coventry's second-half onslaught saw the Sky Blues gain parity before bundling home a stoppage-time winner with an upset Edwards conceding, "It's difficult to come out here and speak. It's on me. I own it. I know there will be a lot of frustration and questions asked. The players are giving me everything, but we lost the game from a commanding position."

Edwards selected an unchanged side for the trip to Coventry, although the Luton chief will be forced into another defensive alteration here following Tom Holmes' red card. With Amari'i Bell, Reece Burke, Teden Mengi, Reuell Walters, Shandon Baptiste and Mads Andersen all out through injury or considered doubts, the Hatters rearguard is stretched.

West Brom extend winless streak

West Brom head coach Carlos Corberan has called for calm as Albion's winless run extended to six games following last week's stalemate against Cardiff at The Hawthorns. The EFL's lowest home goalscorers were frustrated in front of their own supporters and the Spaniard accepted there is room for improvement whilst not undoing good work elsewhere.

The Baggies have lost just twice in 12 tussles this term and spurned a heap of chances to somehow let Cardiff off the hook. Corberan said, "We controlled the game. We didn't finish the chances and that's why we don't have more points. It's important to defend well and attack well. We created some good chances but didn't score. That's the difference."

Corberan will be forced into a centre-back reshuffle on Friday with captain Kyle Bartley ruled out for up to six weeks, whilst replacement Paddy McNair lasted only four minutes before suffering a hamstring injury. Semi Ajayi also limped out, meaning Mason Holgate appeared for the first time this term and Torbjorn Heggem had to fill-in from left back.

Hatters misfiring, Baggies grinding

Luton have tended to toil when facing West Brom this century. The Hatters have beaten the Baggies just once in eight league meetings since 1995 (W1-D2-L5) and have tasted success in only one of their last seven league meetings at Kenilworth Road against Albion going back further (W1-D2-L3), losing their most recent encounter here back in January 2023.

Luton 2.6413/8 sit inside the bottom-three (W3-D2-L7) with the third-worst defensive record after 12 rounds of Championship action. However, the recently-relegated side are actually ranked 10^th on Expected Points (xP), having lost the Expected Goals (xG) battle in only four of those fixtures. Town are six points shy of their performance projections based on xG.

West Brom 2.9015/8 remain inside the top-six (W5-D5-L2) despite their six-game winless streak (W0-D4-L2) since the end of September. The Baggies have scored only two goals in that sample with only four Championship sides scoring fewer this season, yet Albion are ranked fifth on xP and third when viewing xG supremacy records, winning the xG battle six times.

Defensive injuries to be exposed

With neither side particularly appealing in the major markets, punters may wish to take a chance on Both Teams To Score at 1.865/6 considering the key absentees both sides are suffering from in defensive areas. Luton have seen five of six Kenilworth Road games feature winning BTTS bets - all six saw Over 2.5 Goals land - and a repeat appeals here.

Four of West Brom's away days have also paid-out for Both Teams To Score backers with the same hit-rate occurring for Over 2.5 Goals 2.0421/20 hunters. The visitors have notched in 23 of 29 away days going back to the beginning of last term, with 17 (59%) of those showdowns delivering winning BTTS wagers, suggesting goals could be on the menu.

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