Luton v Sheffield United: Hatters capable of blunting the Blades

Luton end winless wait

Luton ended their wait for a first Championship win of the new season last Saturday when beating Swansea 2-0 away at the Liberty Stadium with head coach Nathan Jones describing the Hatters' display as the 'perfect away performance'.

Allan Campbell put Town on their way with a 14th minute strike, before Carlton Morris completed the scoring off the bench.

Having suffered back-to-back defeats beforehand, Jones was delighted with what he saw in South Wales.

He said, "I thought we were absolutely outstanding, out of possession it's as good a performance as you can see. I thought we were aggressive, we were disciplined, we defended superbly, and I thought we looked a threat. We could have scored more."

Despite enjoying just 25% of possession, Luton produced a defensive masterclass, with Dan Potts and Tom Lockyer standing out, meaning goalkeeper Ethan Horvath had very little to do between the sticks.

And the Hatters showcased their capability in transitions, forcing five shots on-target and firing in six attempts from inside the penalty box.

Sheffield United go top of the table

Sheffield United moved top of the Championship as they dethroned previous league leaders Blackburn Rovers with a comfortable 3-0 win at Bramall Lane.

The Blades led at the break courtesy of Oliver Norwood's impressive free-kick and substitute Iliman Ndiaye came off the bench to strike twice, including a stunning long-range drive that cannoned in off the post.

With it being the Blades' third game in six days, United boss Paul Heckingbottom made several changes to his starting line-up with Oli McBurnie and Reda Khadra forming a new-look strike partnership.

And the home head coach was chuffed with how his side responded.

Heckingbottom said, "I thought from start to finish we were excellent - there's no doubt we deserved that, and we could easily have scored more - their keeper made some fantastic saves. We were strong, we were very good with the ball. We created a lot and were really aggressive without the ball. That type of performance would have given anyone a game."

Hatters underrated at home?

Luton and Sheffield United have met just four times in league competition over the past 25 years and the Blades have proven strong operators against Town, posting W2-D2-L0 in those four head-to-heads, conceding just a solitary strike.

However, the two most recent meetings at Kenilworth Road have each ended in low-scoring draws (0-0 and 1-1).

Luton 3.259/4 have W1-D2-L2 thus far, although Nathan Jones' troops have performed better than results have suggested.

The Hatters have fired in more shots from inside the penalty box than their opposition in four of those fixtures, winning the non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) battle on three occasions.

Town have W12-D8-L5 at home since the start of last term.

Sheff Utd 2.506/4 are top of the tree (W3-D1-L1) and the Blades are unbeaten since the opening weekend.

Even so, the visitors' most standout displays have arrived at their Bramall Lane base, and Paul Heckingbottom's guests have returned just W5-D5-L5 on their travels during his stewardship.

United were second-best at both Watford and Middlesbrough.

It might be tight at the Kenny

The goal expectancy for Friday night's encounter has been set around the 2.40 mark.

Meanwhile, Luton's last 25 home Championship outings have produced an average goals per-game (figure that's bang in-line with the goal expectancy here (also 2.40).

Overall, 13 (52%) of those dates went Under 2.5 Goals 1.774/5 with 15 (60%) seeing one side fail to score.

The Hatters 2022/23 contests have proven to be tight affairs, producing just 2.01 Expected Goals (xG) on average with all five failing to feature three goals or more.

Sheffield United's affairs have been more appealing for neutrals, yet the Blades have still delivering Under 2.5 Goals profit in 9/15 (60%) away days under Paul Heckingbottom's watch.

So with Luton slightly underrated by the markets, buoyed by their first success of the season and backed by a raucous crowd under the Friday night lights, I'm happy to have the Hatters onside in a low-scoring showdown.

We can back Luton Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals on the Bet Builder for an appealing 1.865/6.