Ipswich v Norwich: Town backed for top Old Farm honours

• Ipswich exceptional operators at Portman Road

• Norwich rating as a mid-table team this term

• Goals forecast for eagerly anticipated derby dust-up

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Ipswich 1.68/13 skipper Sam Morsy scored the winning goal 10 minutes from time against Watford in midweek to push Town 10 points clear of the chasing pack in the automatic promotion places.

Remarkably, the Tractor Boys have now bust the 50-point margin before the halfway point of the season as their bid for back-to-back promotions gathers pace.

Kieran McKenna made five changes to his side for the trip to Hertfordshire and saw Ipswich fall behind when Yaser Asprilla punished an error by goalkeeper Vaclav Hladky. But George Hirst brought Town level before half-time from close range before Morsy dispossessed Wesley Hoedt and slipped the ball past home to secure Ipswich's fourth successive victory.

McKenna was understandably delighted with his side's efforts, saying, "The bravery we showed after the Watford goal to keep playing our football - if anything we doubled down on it and were even braver - was massive for us. The grit, the resilience, alongside the bravery, was excellent. You deserve to come out on the right side of the margin with that."

Meanwhile, Norwich 6.25/1 claimed their fourth win in six Championship games against Sheffield Wednesday on Wednesday evening to move back into the top-half of the table. Despite being out-shot 21-12 at Carrow Road, the Canaries secured top honours thanks to goals from Borja Sainz on his first start, plus Ashley Barnes and Jonathan Rowe.

City chief David Wagner made three changes to the team that were held to a 0-0 draw at home to Preston last weekend with Sainz making his full debut following a summer move for Turkey, replacing Onel Hernandez. Kellen Fisher was preferred to Jack Stacey at right back, with a starting place for Rowe, as Christian Fassnacht dropped to the bench.

Speaking post-match, Wagner said: "Four days ago I spoke about how frustrated I was about not taking our chances, so to put things right at the very first opportunity is very pleasing and just the way it should be. We scored three wonderful goals, created a lot of other opportunities and also defended well, even though their set pieces caused us problems."

Ipswich can end long wait for derby supremacy

Ipswich haven't tasted Old Farm derby success since 2010 yet the Tractor Boys are well-fancied to end that winless streak at Portman Road on Saturday. McKenna's crew have tabled an exceptional W16-D3-L2 across their opening 21 Championship contests, with Town posting maximum points in nine of their 10 home encounters thus far (W9-D1-L0).

Expected Points (xP) rankings make Ipswich the second most dominant home side in the division behind Leeds, whilst Town average an outstanding +1.12 Expected Goals (xG) supremacy per-game when welcoming opposition sides to Suffolk. The hosts have struck at least twice in all 10 home ties, notching three times or more on eight occasions.

Over 2.5 Goals 1.548/15 has therefore paid in all 10 of Ipswich's home outings, and with the same selection providing profit in nine of Norwich's 10 away days, a goal-heavy game looks to be in the offing. Indeed, Portman Road matches are already averaging a humungous 4.70 goals per-game with the Canaries' road trips boasting a formidable 4.50 goals per-game.

To provide a more palatable price play, we can back Ipswich to win and Over 2.5 Goals at 11/102.11. Regardless of their recent improvement in results, Norwich are rating no higher than mid-table across a range of performance data metrics, returning a negative xG process on their travels. The visitors have also posted W2-D2-L6 against top-13 opposition this term.

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