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Hull haven't beaten any of the top 10 at home
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Ipswich have only beaten two of the top 11 away
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Tractor Boys are winless in three
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Hull v Ipswich
Saturday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football
Disclaimer: I'm writing this column at 11am on Friday morning, and a lot is going to change between now and kick-off in a game which, from where I'm sitting, looks a must-win for both teams.
On Friday night, Leeds travel to QPR, where a win would give them a three point cushion on Ipswich having played two games more. That would leave Kieran McKenna's side needing a win here to keep it in their own hands ahead of a Tuesday night trip to Coventry.
Should Leeds stutter, this would still represent a massive chance for Ipswich to press home their advantage and stick one foot in the Premier League. So the stakes are high for Ipswich no matter what, it's the pressure and the potential size of the prize which are the variables.
The same cannot be said for Hull, with results elsewhere having a huge say in whether this is a game of utmost importance or none at all. Should West Brom and Norwich beat Sheffield Wednesday and Swansea respectively then Hull's season will be over in earnest around 5pm. The Canaries and Baggies would both have confirmed their places in the play-off positions with a game to spare.
Hull could keep promotion dream alive
If either of West Brom or Norwich drop points this becomes a game where Hull have to win to keep their Premier League dream alive, with a draw doing them few favours given the goal difference deficiency they have with both.
This makes it a tough game to bet on at this stage, with so many moving parts that will have a significant impact on what's at stake, which will in-turn affect how the game unravels on Saturday evening.
One thing we can say is that Hull were impressive when they beat Coventry in midweek in something of a 'winner takes all' pre-play-off game, where both teams needed to win to keep their Top Six dreams alive.
Hull were pegged back to 1-1 and 2-2 having led twice, so to go in front for a third time and win the game 3-2 was both a triumph of their quality and their mentality. In two of the goalscorers Fabio Carvalho and Jaden Philogene, Hull possess two of the best attacking players in the Championship and they will cause Ipswich issues here regardless of what's come before.
Hosts are the value
Liam Rosenior's side are yet to beat anyone in the Top 10 at home, but they have taken three points off both Leicester and Southampton on the road and were impressive last month when taking another point from Enzo Maresca's side at the MKM.
Ipswich's away form against the better sides in the league is surprisingly poor, with just two wins against sides currently in the top 11. They've also shown some signs of buckling under the immense pressure recently, taking just two points from their last three games when a continuation of their previous form would likely have seen them have promotion sewn up by now.
There is the risk that Hull may not have a pressing need to win this one, but even if that's the case it's not hard to envisage Town struggling again, while the likelihood is that both teams come into it absolutely needing to win, which should provide an end-to-end affair with goals at both ends.
The hosts look a touch of value to me, especially with Ipswich's struggles in games like this on the road, so Hull to win and both teams to score @ 4/15.00 is the way I'll be playing it.
Now read Championship Opta Stats: Nine of the best bets for Saturday's fixtures
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