EFL Championship 2024/25 Outright Tips: Leeds can justify 3/1 favouritism

• Betting trends make Leeds justified 3/1 favourites to win The Championship

• Michael Carrick's Middlesbrough have strong top-six claims

• Oppose overrated Derby in the relegation race

• Get a FREE bet every time your team scores a goal in August!

Championship 2024/25 Season Preview

Traditionally, picking the winner of the ultra-competitive Championship has proven a thankless task for punters. But has the tide now turned?

In 2020/21, the top three in the ante-post betting all achieved promotion - the first time such a scenario has played out in the EFL - whilst the pre-season jollies have dotted up in four of the past five campaigns with Leeds (5/1), Norwich (13/2), Fulham (11/2) and Leicester (4/1) all earning gold between 2020 and 2024.

Norwich (11/2) failed to scoop top honours in 2022/23 when favoured, though another relegated club romped home as Burnley (12/1) dominated the division. With the Foxes following suit last time out, a relegated Premier League team has now finished top of the Championship tree in four successive seasons.

What's more, 13 (48%) of the past 27 favourites or joint-favourites this century has foraged a way to the promised land, suggesting [3/1] shots Leeds command maximum respect having fallen at the final hurdle in May.

Relegated Premier League clubs all have questions to answer

Unlike 2023/24, when Leicester, Southampton and Leeds all presented strong pre-season cases for a quick bounce-back, this season's fallen trio have more questions than answers to back-up their ante-post prices.

Luton 9/110.00 look the most likely candidate after a creditable top-flight effort. The Hatters have a squad well-stocked with quality second-tier operators and the spine of a side capable of contending towards the top. However, a significant mentality shift is required with Town now one of the big dogs in the division.

It's difficult to see Burnley 6/17.00 repeating their heroics from two season ago with Scott Parker at the helm. The Clarets come into the campaign with a bloated squad and a head coach that still has plenty to prove having underwhelmed despite delivering promotion with both Fulham and Bournemouth previously.

Meanwhile, Sheffield United 12/113.00 are in search of stability following a disastrous Premier League season that saw the Blades ship 104 goals. Chris Wilder remains under tight financial control with the Bramall Lane club suffering from off-field wrangling and a lack of direction at boardroom level.

Leeds are Mark O'Haire's outright Championship bet at 3/1

Which leaves us with Leeds 3/14.00. The Whites amassed 90-points last term - a total good enough for automatic promotion in each of the past six seasons - and look capable of a repeat despite the sale of Archie Gray and the potential loss of Championship Player of the Year Crysencio Summerville this summer.

Jayden Bogle and Joe Rothwell look canny additions to a squad that still possess plenty of firepower in forward areas and has tried-and-trusted operators across the backline and midfield. Backed up by a thriving academy, Leeds look the safest pair of hands with Daniel Farke in charge, a coach with course and distance form.

Boro and Baggies set for Top 6 assault

Little went right for Middlesbrough in 2023/24. The Teessiders were beset by injuries and struggled to replace two of their big-hitters in Cameron Archer and Chuba Akpom. Nevertheless, Michael Carrick still managed to engineer an eighth-placed finish with Boro finishing just four points off the play-offs.

Despite the aforementioned issues, Middlesbrough finished fifth on Expected Points (xP) and an encouraging final eight weeks (W7-D4-L1) with Emmanuel Latte Lath bagging 11 goals in his final 12 games suggests Carrick's crew might be a touch of value at 6/42.50 to secure a top-six finish considering the competition.

Coventry 13/82.63 overcame big-name sales to secure another top-10 berth last time out and although Mark Robins' men have lost Callum O'Hare, another competitive campaign pushing towards the play-offs is expected, but it's West Brom 7/42.75 who are worth a poke at the prices with Carlos Corberan in the hot-seat.

The Spaniard boasts a 49% win-rate in charge of the Baggies at Championship level and his 1.67 points per-game average should have Albion among the front-runners. More functional than flashy, WBA's supremely-organised approach gives the group a strong platform to progress from.

Plenty of candidates for Championship relegation

Financial uncertainty and points penalties have wreaked havoc with the Relegation market in recent seasons. Five of the last 15 teams to finish in the bottom-three have suffered points deductions, often distorting the ante-post market and making a pre-season punt a touch less appealing than previous.

Rumoured ownership issues have the potential to blight Blackburn 7/24.50, Watford 9/25.50 are never far away from a crisis and budgetary restrictions ensure Oxford (11/8) and Preston 10/34.33 will need to overachieve to avoid danger. Meanwhile, pessimism surrounds Wayne Rooney's appointment at Plymouth 9/43.25.

Promoted clubs have a reasonable 55% success-rate at preserving their second-tier status over the past six seasons. However, at least one promoted club has suffered relegation straight back to League One in each of those campaigns with eight (45%) of those 18 sides failing to secure Championship survival.

Derby a big price for the drop

The aforementioned Oxford are the obvious candidates and priced accordingly, but it's a surprise to see fellow newly-promoted outfit Derby as big as 13/27.50 for demotion, a price that implies only a 13% chance of relegation.

The Rams were on the verge of extinction only two summers ago, yet David Clowes' rescue act helped put County back on the map. Derby were worthy promotion winners with an industrious, no-frills approach under Paul Warne that's built from the back and designed to utilise transitions and set-pieces.

The solid base remains, and the Rams are unlikely to be easy meat. But do they possess the squad-strength, firepower and X-Factor to justify market expectations of a mid-table finish? Warne's certainly not accustomed to comfortable Championship campaigns and a dogfight could well ensue.

Hatters hitman a 20/1 shot for Top Goalscorer

Luton hitman Carlton Morris 10/111.00 heads the Top Goalscorer market having hit the 20-goal barrier the last time he spearheaded the Hatters promotion challenge, but it's his team-mate at double the price that takes interest ahead of the 2024/25 renewal.

Elijah Adebayo 20/121.00 made a positive impression on the Premier League, scoring 10 goals from 1,418 minutes (a goal every 142 minutes on average), including a memorable hat-trick against Brighton. The 26-year-old had previously struck 24 times across two Championship seasons with Town.

Luton provided plenty of thrills and spills in the top-flight under Rob Edwards, impressively managing to score in 33 of their 38 outings, and with Alfie Doughty supplying the bullets from wide and set-pieces, the former Walsall star should have enough ammunition to go close if injury is avoided.

With Betfair paying ¼ odds on the top-four places, a punt on Adebayo at 20s would pay out at 5/1 should the 6ft 4in forward finish second, third or fourth in the Top Goalscorer running come May.

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