Easter Monday Opta Stats: Championship tips for the 3pm fixtures
Jack Critchley has studied the latest batch of Opta Stats and has picked out a bet for each of the Championship matches taking place on Easter Monday...
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Easter entertainment at the CBS
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Slow-burner in Wearside
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Robins to edge out the Pilgrims
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Coventry vs Cardiff
Sky Blues to continue their free-scoring approach
Opta Stat:
"Cardiff have lost on Easter Monday in each of the last three years, losing 5-0 to Sheffield Wednesday in 2021, 1-0 to Luton in 2022 and 1-0 to Sunderland in 2023"
Cardiff were surprisingly beaten by Sunderland on Good Friday and have now lost back-to-back matches conceding 29 shots in the process. Erol Bulut will be looking to bounce back, yet it could be tough against one of the division's in-form outfits. The Bluebirds visits to top six sides have seen them lost by an aggregate score of 15-6 and although Coventry sit just outside of the play-offs, we could see a similar result on Monday afternoon.
Coventry walloped Huddersfield on Friday and probably should have netted more than just the three goals. The Sky Blues possess one of Europe's most in-form strikers in Ellis Simms and with Ben Sheaf back in the squad, they look far more balanced in the middle of the park. The hosts could easily rack up a few here.
Betfair Bet:
Stoke vs Huddersfield
Potters to take another step towards safety
Opta Stat:
"Huddersfield have lost their last three league visits to Stoke since beating them 1-0 back in October 2019 under Danny Cowley."
Stoke have been slowly improving and although their lifeless performance against Norwich was a step backwards, they deservedly beat Hull on Good Friday. The Potters now have a five point cushion over Monday's opponents and another win would alleviate the majority of the pressure on Steven Schumacher. They reverted to a 4-4-2 for the first time this campaign and going back to basics appeared to do the trick at the MKM. It remains to be seen whether he sticks with a similar approach here.
Huddersfield are struggling for firepower. They've netted just seven in their last eight and have failed to score in each of their last two away fixtures. Having failed find the net against virtually-relegated Rotherham prior to the international break, they could struggle in this one.
Betfair Bet:
Sunderland vs Blackburn
Low-scoring affair at the SOL
Opta Stat:
"Blackburn Rovers have lost three of their last four league matches on April Fools' Day (D1), losing 1-0 to Birmingham City last year."
Although they slipped to a defeat against Ipswich on Good Friday, Blackburn emerged from the fixture with plenty of credit and if lady luck had been shining down on them, the result may have been very different. Rovers are slowly looking more organised and tougher to beat under John Eustace, yet their issues appear to be in the final third. They may possess the division's most prolific marksman, however, outside of Sammie Szmodics, they lack firepower. They've scored either 0 or 1 in each of their last seven matches and in eight of their last nine.
Sunderland finally got back to winning ways on Friday as they deservedly beat Cardiff in South Wales. The Black Cats have now kept consecutive clean sheets and look to be heading in the right direction following their mid-season blip. This could be tight.
Betfair Bet:
Swansea vs QPR
QPR to potentially edge a tight encounter
Opta Stat:
"The last three league meetings between Swansea and Queens Park Rangers at Liberty Stadium have all ended 1-0 - won by the Hoops in 2020-21 and 2021-22 and by the Swans last season"
Swansea may have won their last two matches here, yet they possess a fairly unremarkable home record this season and have won just four times since October 4th. Luke Williams' side do appear to be harder to beat and they are likely to battle their way through the 90 minutes.
QPR have given their survival hopes a significant shot in the arm with a 2-1 victory over Birmingham on Good Friday. They are indebted to Jimmy Dunne's spectacular strike and they will fancy their chances of building on that success. Their away form under Marti Cifuentes is excellent and they've taken 11 points from a possible 18 on the road since Boxing Day. They've also conceded just three goals during that same period and should be able to claim at least a draw in this one.
Betfair Bet:
West Brom vs Watford
The lesser-spotted BTTS at the Hawthorns
Opta Stat:
"West Bromwich Albion are winless in their last six league games against Watford (D3 L3) since a 3-1 win in December 2016 in the Premier League"
West Brom picked up another point on Good Friday and Carlos Corberan's side have now lost just a single match since January 20th. WBA's home form is absolutely stunning with only Leeds and Leicester having conceded fewer goals in front of their own fans so far this season. Nevertheless, they haven't been at their best in the last two games and this may not be a straightforward assignment for the Baggies.
Watford deservedly took a point against Leeds on Friday night and they appear to be a team reborn under the fresh faced Tom Cleverley. The Hornets look far more incisive going forward and Emmanuel Dennis is enjoying his football again. With a hungry and motivated Dennis in the XI, there is every chance that the visitors can find a way through.
Betfair Bet:
Rotherham vs Millwall
Lions to edge to victory
Opta Stat:
"Rotherham United are winless in their last nine league games played on April Fools' Day (D3 L6), failing to score in their last three"
Rotherham's relegation hasn't been mathematically confirmed, but the Millers' minds have been in League One for a number of weeks. They've been atrocious away from home, yet at the New York Stadium they've played with a little more credit and have only been defeated by more than a single goal margin on two occasions here this season. They picked up a point against Huddersfield here last time out and they will be hoping to battle their way to at least a point. They lack quality in the final third and they haven't netted a home goal since February 13th.
Millwall have become much tougher to beat under Neil Harris and although it may not be a long term approach, it has edged them away from the relegation zone. The Lions have a decent record travelling to bottom six sides this season and having conceded just five times in their last six matches, they should be able to keep the hosts at arm's length.
Betfair Bet:
Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wednesday
Boro to have the last Lath
Opta Stat:
"Middlesbrough won 3-1 in their last home league match against Sheffield Wednesday back in April 2021, last winning consecutively against the Owls on home soil between 1996 and 2012 (six in a row)"
Middlesbrough are on a decent run of form and they can take a lot of confidence from their 1-1 draw at St. Marys on Friday. As we witnessed last season, Michael Carrick is an excellent manager at maintaining momentum and with his side on a roll, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them take another step towards the top six here.
Although they haven't been free-scoring in recent weeks, the form of Emmanuel Latte-Lath has been encouraging with the 25-year old having notched three times in his last five appearances and he finally appears to be finding his feet at this level. Carrick was able to keep Chuba Akpom firing consistently last year and he may be pulling off the same trick this time around.
Betfair Bet:
Birmingham vs Preston
Blues and Lilywhites to share the points
Opta Stat:
"Birmingham have only won one of their last 11 league games played on Easter Monday (D3 L7), a 3-1 away win at Rotherham in April 2019"
Birmingham were defeated by QPR on Friday, although there wasn't much they could do about Jimmy Dunne's stunning strike. Brum's recent form is woeful and Gary Rowett has been employed to stop their descent. Rowett's strengths lie in making his side's tough to beat and they almost snatched a point at Loftus Road. At home this season, they haven't been beaten often with the majority of their defeats coming by slender margins.
PNE are one of the form sides in the Championship, although we can't read too much into their victory over Rotherham. They've kept four clean sheets in their last five and haven't conceded an away goal since January 27th.
Betfair Bet:
Plymouth vs Bristol City
Robins to potentially shade a tight 90 minutes
Opta Stat:
"Plymouth haven't scored a single goal in any of their last four league matches played on Easter Monday (D1 L3) since hammering Newport 6-1 on this day in April 2017"
Plymouth's poor form continued on Good Friday despite taking the lead against Norwich. The Pilgrims have looked slightly more effective on the road in recent weeks and a defeat here could potentially spell the end for Ian Foster. The players don't appear to be up for the fight and they are struggling to create chances. They've netted just four times in eight matches and haven't scored a home goal since February 14th.
Bristol City beat Leicester on Friday to continue their incredibly inconsistent form. The Robins have been leaky on the road, yet they've also shown flashes of ability under Liam Manning. The boss has also shown that he can get his side organised when required and the players are clearly responding to his demands. Manning appears to be a reasonably popular character in the dressing room whereas Foster seems to be slowly losing the backing of his players. That may swing this in favour of the visitors.
Betfair Bet:
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