With most clubs having just one game to play in the regulation Championship season, Mike Norman brings us the odds and permutations in the promotion and relegation markets...
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Leicester first club to be promoted to Premier League
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Ipswich can join them if taking at least four points
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Leeds primed to take advantage of any slip-ups
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Play-off places and relegation still to be decided
Ipswich Town will be promoted to the Premier League on Saturday afternoon according to the Betfair Sportsbook.
Kieran Mckenna's men - who only won promotion to the Championship last season - are 4/111.36 to record a Top 2 Finish, and if doing so they will join Leicester City in being promoted to the top flight of English football.
The Foxes were promoted without kicking a ball on Friday night when Leeds United suffered a shock 4-0 defeat at QPR.
Tractor Boys need four points
To guarantee automatic promotion Ipswich must take at least four points from their two remaining games against Coventry (A) and Huddersfield (H).
The Tractor Boys currently sit third in the table, level on points with Leeds, but with a seven-goal inferior goal difference.
This means that should Ipswich take just three points from their remaining two games, and Leeds beat Southampton at Elland Road on Saturday, then it is massive odds-on that Daniel Farke's men will be automatically promoted because of their superior goal difference.
Leeds can be backed at 11/53.20 to record a Top 2 Finish.
Other permutations
- Ipswich will be promoted automatically if they take at least two points from their two remaining games and Leeds draw with Southampton.
- Ipswich will be promoted automatically if they take at least one point from their two remaining games and Leeds lose to Southampton.
- Leeds will gain automatic promotion if they take more points against Southampton than Ipswich take from their two remaining games.
- Leeds will gain automatic promotion if they take the same amount of points as Ipswich but finish the season with a better goal difference.
Play-off teams almost decided
Whoever misses out between Ipswich and Leeds for the final automatic promotion slot is likely to be favourite to win promotion via the play-offs.
One of the Tractor Boys or the Whites will finish third in the table and they will join Southampton - who are guaranteed to finish fourth - and almost certainly Norwich in the play-offs.
The Canaries are fifth in the table, three points ahead of Hull in seventh, but because of their superior goal difference even a defeat to relegation-threatened Birmingham on Saturday is unlikely to knock them out of the top six.
That just leaves the final play-off place to be decided between Hull and West Brom.
Albion currently sit sixth in the table, two points ahead of the Tigers but with a much superior goal difference meaning they require just a draw at home to mid-table Preston on Saturday to guarantee they finish in the top six.
In the Betfair Sportsbook's Promotion market - which includes being promoted via a top two finish and via the play-offs, so two slots available - Ipswich are the 1/51.20 favourites ahead of Leeds at 8/151.53.
Southampton are the third favourites at 7/52.40 ahead of Norwich at 6/17.00, West Brom at 13/27.50, and rank outsiders Hull at 50/151.00.
One from four for final relegation slot
With Rotherham already relegated and Huddersfield all but mathematically relegated, there's just one place to be decided at the bottom of the table.
Blackburn (19th) and Sheffield Wednesday (20th) are sitting the most comfortable of the four clubs still threatened with dropping down to League One, both being two points above Plymouth (21st) and three above Birmingham (22nd).
A draw for Rovers (away to Leicester) and the Owls (away to Sunderland) on Saturday will guarantee Championship football next season, but defeats for both clubs will still see them survive if either Plymouth (home to Hull) or Birmingham (home to Norwich) fail to win.
It's likely then that the final team to be relegated will be either Argyle or the Blues.
Other permutations
- Birmingham will be relegated if they lose to Norwich.
- Birmingham will be relegated if they draw with Norwich and Plymouth don't lose by at least four goals against Hull.
- Birmingham will be relegated if they beat Norwich, Plymouth beat Hull, and either Blackburn or Sheffield Wednesday take at least one point.
- Plymouth will be relegated if they fail to beat Hull and Birmingham beat Norwich.
- Plymouth will be relegated if they lose to Hull by at least four goals, Birmingham draw with Norwich, and Argyle have an inferior goal difference.
- Sheffield Wednesday will be relegated if they lose to Sunderland and both Plymouth and Birmingham win.
- Blackburn will be relegated if they lose to Leicester, both Plymouth and Birmingham win, and Sheffield Wednesday don't lose to Sunderland.
The above permutations suggest that Birmingham are up against it in their bid to survive and it's no surprise to see them at 1/31.33 in the Betfair Sportsbook's Relegation market.
Plymouth can be backed at 11/43.75 to go down, with Blackburn at 16/117.00 and Sheffield Wednesday at 22/123.00.
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