Championship Play-Offs: Unfancied Terriers could defy expectations

Jack Critchley
09 May 2022
5:00 min read

Carlos Corberan will be hoping that he can guide the unfancied Terriers back to the Premier League

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Jack Critchley takes a look at the odds ahead of the 2021-22 Championship play-offs and picked out his best bet for this fascinating end-of-season showdown...

"Huddersfield have been remarkably consistently and ended the season strongly with two defeats in their last 26 fixtures. They also won each of their last four matches, despite dealing with injuries to key players such as Lewis O'Brien and Sorba Thomas"

The Championship play-offs get under way on May 13 with Huddersfield, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United and Luton each hoping to secure a place in the Premier League. With an estimated £100m of prize money up for grabs, it looks set to be yet another fascinating and unpredictable couple of weeks in the second tier.

Nottingham Forest looking to justify favouritism

Nottingham Forest promotion odds 2.789/5

First leg odds - Sheff Utd 2.3411/8 Nottm Forest 3.711/4 Draw 3.1511/5

Prior to Steve Cooper's arrival at the City Ground, Forest had picked up just four points from a possible 24. His predecessor Chris Hughton had failed to get the best out of the Tricky Trees' talented squad, however, the Welshman has emphatically turned things around in the East Midlands and he was just two games away from potentially delivering automatic promotion.

Nevertheless, Forest's imperious second half of the campaign has seen them installed as play-off favourites and having failed to win either of their last two matches, Cooper must ensure that complacency doesn't creep in.

Although they will have been disappointed to concede a last-gasp equaliser to Hull on the final day of the season, they were able to make wholesale changes to their XI with Cooper opting to rest seven first-team players including Philip Zinckernagel, Ryan Yates and Djed Spence.

Interestingly, they have a fairly poor record against fellow top six sides at the City Ground, taking just two points from their high-flying rivals on their own patch. They were much better on the road and picked up impressive victories at Craven Cottage and the John Smith's Stadium, whilst also leaving Bramall Lane with a valuable point.

Blades hoping to capitalise on their recent momentum

Sheffield United promotion odds 3.65

First leg odds - Sheff Utd 2.3411/8 Nottm Forest 3.711/4 Draw 3.1511/5

Sheffield United have also benefited from a masterful mid-season managerial move which saw the outgoing Slavisa Jokanovic replaced by former Barnsley boss Paul Heckingbottom. Although many Blades fan were initially left a little puzzled by the switch, the appointment has paid dividends with ''Hecky' guiding the South Yorkshire club into the top six with a thumping final day victory over champions Fulham.

The Blades have had to deal with a raft of injuries which has seen several key players miss large chunks of the campaign including Jayden Bogle and Rhian Brewster, both of whom are ruled out until next season.

Nevertheless, they've been remarkably consistent and incredibly tough to break down. Bramall Lane has been a fortress with 13 of their 21 victories arriving on their own patch. They've also conceded an average of just 0.65 goals per game at home with only Bournemouth keeping more clean sheets than the impressive Blades.

Despite leaving Craven Cottage with maximum points back in December, the majority of their away victories have come against sides in the bottom six and they are unlikely to relish a trip to the City Ground on May 17th.

Terriers aiming to continue remarkable run

Huddersfield promotion odds 4.47/2

First leg match odds - Luton 2.568/5 Huddersfield 3.211/5 Draw 3.211/5

At the beginning of the campaign, the majority of Championship pundits predicted a season of struggle for Huddersfield. Despite possessing a fairly small and inexpensively-assembled squad, Carlos Corberan has worked wonders in West Yorkshire and the Terriers now have every chance of returning to the top flight.

Surprisingly, the Terriers finished the season as the fourth highest scorers in the division. However, they were also effective at the other end of the pitch, keeping clean sheets in 48% of their home games.

They have been remarkably consistent and ended the season strongly with two defeats in their last 26 fixtures. They also won each of their last four matches, despite dealing with injuries to key players such as Lewis O'Brien and Sorba Thomas.

Corberan has been fairly guarded when it comes to players returning from injury in time for these crucial play-off games, however, the general mood in the camp is positive and the aforementioned duo are likely to feature in some capacity.

Huddersfield kept clean sheets in both of their regular season matches with Luton and they also have a decent record when visiting fellow top six sides.

Injury-hit Hatters aiming to spring a surprise

Luton promotion odds 6.86/1

First leg match odds - Luton 2.568/5 Huddersfield 3.211/5 Draw 3.211/5

When it comes to the Championship play-offs, the market doesn't always get it right. Luton will be hoping to capitalise on their position as outsiders in the betting and it is rarely a good idea to completely write off any side managed by Nathan Jones.

The Hatters are struggling with injuries, however, James Bree and Sonny Bradley returned to the XI on the final day of the season. Jones' side always play with plenty of passion and despite possessing the lowest budget in the division, they have more than matched their richer rivals this season.

They are incredibly effective at Kenilworth Road, yet they've struggled when visiting fellow top six opposition. They've taken just eight points from a possible 36 when travelling to top half sides and were recently defeated at the John Smith's Stadium.

They may not have been at their best on the final day of the season, yet they deserve their place in the top six. The players clearly enjoy working under Jones and his coaching staff and they will give 100% throughout the play-off campaign.

Consistent Terriers could provide a bit of value

The Championship play-offs are tremendously and enjoyably unpredictable, and although it's difficult to look beyond Nottingham Forest's remarkable recent form, they may be a little short in the betting, especially with an upcoming trip to Bramall Lane on the horizon.

Huddersfield swatted aside predictions of a second half collapse, and the defiant Terriers would relish the opportunity to prove their critics wrong once again. Carlos Corberan is a master tactician and when it comes to one-off matches, he is likely to have the perfect plan in place.

Having suffered just two defeats since November 27th, the West Yorkshire outfit aren't going down without a fight and they may just be worth backing at 4.47/2 to lift the trophy for the second time in five years.