Championship Opta Stats: Saturday afternoon's best bets

Danny Ruhl will be hoping that his side can continue their excellent record of scoring at home

With assistance from the latest Opta Stats, Jack Critchley has picked out the best bets for Saturday's 3pm fixtures in the Championship...


Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry

Hillsborough faithful to have something to celebrate

The Opta Stat:

"Only Cardiff (13) have scored more Championship goals from corners this season than Coventry (7), while only Blackburn (8), Middlesbrough, QPR and Watford (all 7) have conceded more such goals than Sheffield Wednesday (6)"

Sheffield Wednesday were soundly beaten by Southampton last weekend. The Owls were never really expected to take anything from that fixture, however, notwithstanding the lofty position of this weekend's opposition, the home fans will fancy their chances of taking something from this clash. Wednesday have netted nine times across their last four matches here, and have hit the target in each of their last five. The addition of Ike Ugbo gives them another option up top and they should be able to ask questions of the Coventry defence.

Only Southampton are on a longer unbeaten run than Coventry with the Sky Blues having avoided defeat since the beginning of December. Mark Robins' side are playing well and looking sharp in the final third, yet they've conceded in each of their last three. They've managed just two away clean sheets this season and may struggle to keep the hosts at arm's length.

Betfair Bet:


Bristol City vs Watford

Hornets to potentially edge past tired Robins

The Opta Stat:

"Bristol City are winless in their last three league games (D1 L2), while failing to score in each of those matches; the Robins last went four league matches without scoring in February 2021"

Bristol City booked their place in the fourth round of the FA Cup courtesy of an early Tommy Conway strike. The Robins need to improve their Championship form having failed to score in each of their last three. Following insipid displays against Birmingham and Millwall, Liam Manning's men did show a little more adventure against Preston, yet they still failed to hit the target. Perhaps the addition of Scott Twine will help with their recent lack of firepower?

Watford beat QPR last weekend despite giving away plenty of chances. Hornets' away games have been crazy and they've netted 2+ goals in each of their last five matches on the road. The visitors don't keep many clean sheets on their travels, but they should have enough going forward to sneak past the jaded hosts.

Betfair Bet:


QPR vs Millwall

Lions to take a point back across the Capital

Opta Stat:

"QPR have lost three of their last four league matches against Millwall (W1), more than in their previous 19 games combined against the Lions (W6 D11 L2)"

QPR were much better against Watford last weekend, yet they couldn't convert their chances and now remain without victory in their last seven outings. Marti Cifuentes desperately needs January reinforcements and with the striking department requiring some much-needed January surgery. They've netted three times since December 9th and could struggle to find a way past Millwall's resolute defence.

Millwall were defeated by Middlesbrough last time out, yet they played well for the majority of the contest. Joe Edward's side still lack a little bit of firepower, yet they've won three of their last four and are unbeaten when facing bottom six opposition this season.

Betfair Bet:


Middlesbrough vs Rotherham

Another barren display from the visitors

Opta Stat:

"Rotherham have failed to win their last 26 league games on the road (D10 L16); only in October 1978 and August 2017 have they endured longer winless runs on their travels in the Football League (both 27)"

Middlesbrough were victorious at the Den at the weekend having produced an excellent second-half display to take all three points back to Teesside. Michael Carrick's men have won four of their last six and should have too much for a struggling Rotherham outfit. The addition of Finn Azaz is a significant boost and with one or two injured players returning from injury, they will be hoping to put together a sustained play-off push.

Leam Richardson has made Rotherham tougher to beat, yet he's still suffering from a chronic lack of firepower. Fred Onyedinma was recently recalled by Rotherham whereas the partnership of Sam Nombe and Jordan Hugill hasn't quite clicked yet. The Millers had just three efforts in the reverse fixture despite winning the game 1-0 and they are unlikely to repeat that effort here.

Betfair Bet:


Stoke vs Birmingham

Attack-minded Blues to contribute to an entertaining contest

The Opta Stat:

"Only Sheffield Wednesday (11) and Rotherham (10) have lost more away games in the Championship this season than Birmingham (W2 D2 L9), while only the Millers (17%) and Plymouth (20%) have won a smaller proportion of their points in away games in the division in 2023-24 than the Blues (28% - 8/29)"

It's been a dismal season for Birmingham, however, they now look to be heading in the right direction under the stewardship of Tony Mowbray. They have looked far more confident going forward and they should have beaten Swansea last weekend. They also netted twice against Hull in the FA Cup in midweek.

Stoke have tightened up under Steven Schumacher and they kept yet another clean sheet last weekend. Nevertheless, it will be far tougher to keep a confident Blues at arm's length. We're still not sure what to make of this new-look Potters outfit, but they should have enough about them to hit the target.

Betfair Bet:


Plymouth vs Cardiff

Another absorbing contest in Devon

The Opta Stat:

"Plymouth are unbeaten at home in their last seven league matches (W4 D3), while only Portman Road (56) has seen more Championship goals scored there this season than Home Park (55)"

Ian Foster is getting to grips with life at Home Park. His preparations have been hampered by several loanees having been recalled including Luke Cundle and Kaine Kesler-Hayden. They have added Ashley Phillips, Alfie Devine and Matthew Sorinola this week and having worked with many of the new additions previously, Foster will be confident of getting the best out of them. The Pilgrims' home games have been thoroughly entertaining affairs with consecutive 3-3 draws having been preceded by a 3-2 victory over Rotherham.

Cardiff have been a little more reserved in their approach, however, they are starting to leak goals again and were easily swept aside last weekend by Leeds. Four of the Bluebirds' last five away games have featured three or more goals and this is likely to follow suit.

Betfair Bet:


Blackburn vs Huddersfield

Rovers' winless run to continue

Opta Stat:

"Blackburn are without a win in six league games (D1 L5), while Rovers have conceded more Championship goals than any other side in 2023-24 (52)"

It's been a fruitless spell for Blackburn Rovers who have slipped to 18th position having presided over a six match winless streak. JDT remains a man under pressure and he will be desperate for his side to bounce back here. This is a winnable match for the hosts, yet they are conceding far too many goals and it's difficult to make a case for them at an odds-on price.

Huddersfield are poor on the road and they have failed to take maximum points on each of their five visits to bottom half opposition. The Terriers have added to their squad during this window and will surely get stronger. They have got money to spend in January, however, they may have to settle for an underwhelming point in Lancashire.

Betfair Bet:


Norwich vs West Brom

Canaries and Baggies to share the spoils

The Opta Stat:

"Norwich are winless in their last five league games against West Bromwich Albion (D2 L3) since a 1-0 away win in March 2016"

Norwich were victorious in the FA Cup on Wednesday night which leaves little time to prepare for this clash. The Canaries are very strong at Carrow Road, yet just one of their successes has come against top half opposition. They have enjoyed a fairly kind fixture list when it comes to home games and this is unlikely to be straightforward.

WBA still have off-the-field issues, yet the astute Carlos Corberan has managed to guide them through these choppy waters. WBA's away form is far from perfect, yet they've picked up four away victories (all with a clean sheet). Five of their six away defeats have been by a single goal and there is unlikely to be much between these sides.

Betfair Bet


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Recommended bets

Back BTTS in Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry @ 3/41.75

Back Middlesbrough to Win to Nil (vs Rotherham) @ 1/12.00

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Plymouth vs Cardiff @ 3/41.75

Jack Critchley's 2023-24 P/L

Staked: 249.00

Returned: 239.78

P/L: -9.22

Jack Critchley

Jack is a betting broadcaster and journalist of 10+ years and has been covering the Championship for Betfair since the beginning of the 2019 season.

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