Championship Opta Stats: Eight bets for Saturday afternoon

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Carlos Corberan will be hoping that his side can perfectly execute his game plan at the Hawthorns once again

Jack Critchley has looked at this weekend's Championship fixtures and has used the Opta Stats to pick out his eight best bets...

  • Rovers' poor form set to continue

  • Improving Lions to make it tough for jaded Boro

  • Manning masterclass on the road

  • Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here


    West Brom vs Blackburn

    WBA victorious again at the Hawthorns

    The Opta Stat

    "Since Carlos Corberan's first home league game in charge of West Bromwich Albion, the Baggies have won more points on home soil than any other side (60), winning 18 of 28 games under the Spaniard at the Hawthorns (D6 L4)"

    Only Leicester have conceded fewer home goals than West Brom this season. The Baggies are superb at the Hawthorns and Carlos Corberan has got his injury-hit side extremely well-organised here. The aforementioned Leicester are the only side to have beaten them here since the beginning of September and they arrive here off the back of consecutive clean sheets. With just four goals shipped since September 2nd, Blackburn could find it tough to breach this formidable back-line.

    The visitors have actually won five times on the road this season, yet they arrive in the Black Country in a bit of a slump. Having lost four consecutive games away from home, they've hit a bit of a bump in the road and although their FA Cup win will have restored some confidence, they have lost all four away ties against top eight sides and are likely to chalk up another defeat here.

    Betfair Bet:


    Southampton vs Sheffield Wednesday

    Owls to make it tough to in-form Saints

    The Opta Stat:

    "Since the start of December, only Leicester City (22) and Southampton (18) have won more Championship points than Sheffield Wednesday (15 - W5 D0 L3). Between August and November, the Owls won the fewest points in the division (7)"

    As the Opta Stat suggests, Sheffield Wednesday's performances have been much-improved since the start of last month. Danny Ruhl has got his side working hard and fighting for every point and they are looking to secure a third consecutive victory here, something they haven't achieved since the beginning of May.

    Southampton haven't dropped any points at St. Marys since the beginning of October and they will surely find a way to win this game. Nevertheless, they will have to dig deep to collect maximum points on Saturday afternoon.

    Betfair Bet:


    Huddersfield vs Plymouth

    Terriers to prevail in West Yorkshire

    The Opta Stat:

    "Plymouth Argyle are one of only two sides without an away Championship win so far this season (D5 L8), along with Rotherham United. Only 23% of their total goals have been scored away from home (10/43), the lowest ratio of any team"

    Neither of these two sides are safe from relegation and they will both be keen to secure maximum points on Saturday afternoon. Huddersfield have entered the transfer market, adding Alex Matos and Bojan Radulovic to their squad. Plymouth have signed Ashley Phillips to bolster their back-line, however, they've lost key loanee Finn Azaz, who had created 28 chances for the Pilgrims before being recalled by his parent club and sent to Middlesbrough.

    The Terriers are far better at home and all three of their victories here have come against sides sat in the bottom ten. They've also scored 2+ in each of those games and have shown enough going forward to suggest that they can take advantage of the visitors' generous defending.

    The Betfair Bet:


    Millwall vs Middlesbrough

    Boro's cup exploits to catch up with them

    The Opta Stat:

    "Middlesbrough haven't won any of their last eight away league matches in London (D5 L3), losing their last two in the capital. They haven't lost three in a row in London since May 2017 in the Premier League"

    Millwall have taken a few weeks to find their feet under Joe Edwards. The rookie boss struggled to get to grips throughout November, yet their form over the festive period was seriously impressive. They appear to have gone back to basics and they have become incredibly tough to break down. They come into this game having kept four consecutive clean sheets and having only been outshot in one of their last five matches.

    Boro were triumphant against Chelsea in the EFL Cup on Tuesday night, yet they picked up another couple of injuries in the process. Boro have lost five of their last eight games in the Championship and even though they recently won on the road at Huddersfield, they have been far too open on their travels. A busy week could catch up with the injury-hit visitors.

    Betfair Bet:


    Cardiff vs Leeds

    Leeds' unconvincing away form to hold them back

    The Opta Stat:

    "Cardiff City are unbeaten in their last six league games against Leeds United (W4 D2) since a 2-0 defeat in September 2016 under Paul Trollope"

    Cardiff are a very inconsistent outfit and can be difficult to predict. They possess a 3-1-3 record since December 8th and although they've lost both home games against top six opposition, they made it tough for the visitors on both occasions. Four of their five home defeats been by a single-goal margin and they've only failed to score on three occasions here.

    Leeds' automatic promotion hopes have been hindered by their poor form on the road. The Whites have lost three consecutive away matches and have conceded 15 of their 25 goals away from Elland Road. Their matches on the road have been fairly low-scoring, yet they've kept just two clean sheets since a 0-0 draw with Hull on September 20th. It's hard to trust the Whites at such a short price, so backing the visitors to concede feels like a safer option.

    Betfair Bet:


    Preston vs Bristol City

    PNE's to disappoint at Deepdale

    Opta Stat:

    "Preston North End have lost seven of their last 10 Championship matches (W2 D1), including four of their last five on home soil. They've shipped 24 goals at Deepdale this season, the most any side has conceded at home in the Championship this season"

    As the Opta Stat suggests, PNE's home form has dropped off a cliff and Ryan Lowe remains under pressure in Lancashire Despite beating Leeds here on Boxing Day, PNE were subsequently edged out by Sheffield Wednesday before finding very little against Sunderland. The hosts are also yet to clinch a clean sheet in front of their own fans this season.

    Bristol City are unbeaten in four of their last five and although some fans were left dissatisfied with their performance against Millwall, they have shown enough to suggest that they can take something from this encounter. The Robins are unbeaten in three of their last four on the road and should have enough to pick up at least a point on Saturday.

    The Betfair Bet: `


    Rotherham vs Stoke

    Millers to make it tough for the travelling Potters

    The Opta Stat:

    "Rotherham have drawn their last four home league games against Stoke and are unbeaten in seven on home soil against the Potters (W3 D4)"

    Rotherham are much harder to play against under Leam Richardson. During his time at Wigan, Richardson made the Latics difficult to break down and every single player appears to be working hard for the new boss. Against Premier League opposition in the FA Cup, they battled admirably before going down 1-0 at Craven Cottage. They've avoided defeat in each of their last three and are currently presiding over their longest unbeaten run of the season.

    It's difficult to assess Stoke as its still early days for new boss Steven Schumacher. The Potters are unbeaten in six and they look less susceptible than they did under the previous regime. This could easily end up all-square, but the Millers have a decent record at home despite their perilous position.

    Betfair Bet:


    Birmingham vs Swansea

    Both sides to take an attack-minded approach

    The Opta Stat:

    "Swansea City have dropped more points from winning positions than any other Championship side this season (21). They've taken the lead in nine away games and only won four of them (D2 L3)"

    Tony Mowbray has been apppointed by Birmingham and his mandate will likely involve giving everyone at the club an injection of positivity following the disastrous reign of Wayne Rooney. Mowbray won his first game in charge of Sunderland and a home tie against the struggling Swans appears to be an ideal opener.

    Swansea have opted for Notts County's Luke Williams following a long and arduous managerial search. They've been leaky on the road all season and the incoming gaffer isn't renowned for keeping things tight. The visitors haven't kept a clean sheet on the road since the end of October, whereas they do tend find the net on their travels. BTTS has landed in five of their last six away from home and this could follow suit.

    Betfair Bet:


    Read more Championship previews and tips here.


Recommended bets

Back West Brom to Win and Under 4.5 Goals @ 10/111.91

Back Millwall Draw No Bet (vs Middlesbrough) @ 19/201.95

Back Bristol City Draw No Bet (vs Preston) @ 10/111.91

Jack Critchley's 2023-24 P/L

Staked: 240.00

Returned: 231.94

P/L: -8.06

Jack Critchley

Jack is a betting broadcaster and journalist of 10+ years and has been covering the Championship for Betfair since the beginning of the 2019 season.

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