Burnley v West Brom: Cagey Friday night contest on the cards

Mark O'Haire
19 January 2023
3 min read

Burnley have lost just twice under Vincent Kompany

Burnley vs West Bromwich Albion
Fri 20 Jan, 20:00

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Friday night's televised Championship action arrives from Turf Moor as league leaders Burnley entertain in-form West Brom. Mark O'Haire is expecting a slow-burner.

Burnley have won 11 of their last 12
West Brom have won nine of their past 10
In-form outfits difficult to split

Burnley made to work by Sky Blues

Burnley boss Vincent Kompany was delighted with his side's second-half display as they beat Coventry 1-0 at Turf Moor. The Clarets have now recorded 11 Championship victories from their past 12 encounters and moved 16 points clear of third-place Watford; defender Jordan Beyer headed home the winner eight minutes from time for his first goal in English football.

Burnley dominated possession throughout but struggled to break down a resolute Sky Blues side. Speaking post-match, Kompany admitted his side were second-best during the opening 45 minutes but was pleased with their response after the break.

He said, "A very hard-fought win. We are happy because, on the basis of the first half, we could have been a goal down and we didn't deserve much out of the game. In the first half we were nowhere near it. We weren't ourselves. But the second half was really good, to the standards we are used to. The second half was who we really are and that's pleasing."

Captain Jack Cork received his 10^th booking of the season last weekend and will begin a two-match suspension - Johann Berg Gudmundsson could return to the starting XI, whilst England U21 captain Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Brazilian defender Vitinho are hoping to make their returns from injury to be in the squad on Friday night.

West Brom complete remarkable turnaround

A stunning second-half comeback capped a remarkable turnaround for in-form West Brom as the Baggies maintained their Championship charge at Luton. Albion found themselves 2-0 down and shell-shocked inside 10 minutes at Kenilworth Road but fought back to seal a magnificent 3-2 success, a result that launched Carlos Corberan's crew into the top-six.

Daryl Dike halved the deficit before half-time and the incredible U-turn was complete in two crazy second-half minutes after the hour mark. First Jayson Molumby hammered home from the penalty spot after a scramble before Conor Townsend scored his first league goal for the Baggies in tapping home at the back post to give West Brom a vital lead.

Corberan hailed his players post-match for their mentality in battling back. He said: "I can only tell you it was the mentality of the players, the character, they believe. It was the key aspect to winning the three points in a very complicated stadium, after conceding two goals in the first 10 minutes. They were insistent until we achieved the result that we needed."

Dike led the visitors' frontline in the absence of the suspended Brandon Thomas-Asante as West Brom reverted back to the same XI that had overcome Reading in early January. Karlan Grant was unavailable through injury but could return to the squad for the trip to Turf Moor with the Baggies short on alternative or back-up attacking options.

Market favours the Clarets

Burnley and West Brom have been involved in numerous tight and competitive league contests in recent years. The two teams have played out four draws in their past six meetings, including a 1-1 stalemate when facing-off at The Hawthorns back in September, whilst three of the last four showdowns at Turf Moor have all paid out on the draw 3.4012/5.

Burnley 2.186/5 are five points clear at the top of the table having lost just twice under Vincent Kompany's watch (W17-D8-L2), picking up maximum points in 11 of their past 12 fixtures. The hosts are also unbeaten in 14 this season at Turf Moor (W10-D4-L) and the Clarets come into this contest on a remarkable eight-match home winning streak too.

West Brom 3.90 were beaten by Sheffield United in Carlos Corberan's first fixture in charge yet Albion have since posted nine victories from 10 to parachute themselves into the play-off places. Only Burnley (30) and Sheff Utd (28) have earned more points than the Baggies (27) since the Spaniard was appointed with WBA leaking just six goals in 11 outings.

Burnley

West Bromwich Albion

Ipswich Town 0 0 Burnley
Burnley 2 1 West Bromwich Albion
Burnley 1 0 Coventry City
Bournemouth 2 4 Burnley
Swansea City 1 2 Burnley
Stoke City 0 1 Burnley

Bristol City 3 0 West Bromwich Albion
Burnley 2 1 West Bromwich Albion
West Bromwich Albion 4 0 Chesterfield
Luton Town 2 3 West Bromwich Albion
Chesterfield 3 3 West Bromwich Albion
West Bromwich Albion 1 0 Reading

Burnley vs West Bromwich Albion Friday 20 January, 20:00

Full stats

Slow-burner could be in-store

Burnley are the division's highest scorers and have notched in each of their past 24 Championship dates, failing to net only once during the Vincent Kompany era. The Clarets have proven particularly potent at Turf Moor, striking at least twice in nine of 14, averaging 2.14 goals per-game as hosts - 57% of home fixtures have featured Over 2.5 Goals 2.166/5.

West Brom's turnaround has been built upon a rock-solid rearguard. The Baggies have recorded seven shutouts in their last 10 tussles, allowing just 0.47 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) per-game during that recent revival. Unsurprisingly, eight of Albion's overall 11 matches under Carlos Corberan's stewardship have concluded with Under 2.5 Goals 1.794/5.

In a difficult game to assess, it may be worth chucking a small dart at Under 0.5 First-Half Goals at 2.757/4 on the Sportsbook. This selection has paid out in five of Burnley's last seven Turf Moor tussles as the Clarets have been made to work hard to open up well-drilled defences, whilst West Brom's encounters tend to be tight affairs since the coaching switch.