Burnley v Watford: Clarets can conquer inconsistent Hornets

• Burnley looking to win 11 league games on the spin

• Watford struggling for consistency

• Clarets can win again as romp to Premier League continues

Tella's treble extends Burnley streak

Nathan Tella scored a first career hat-trick as Burnley won 10 league games in a row for the first time in more than 100 years on Saturday as the runaway Championship leaders crushed rivals Preston 3-0 to continue their seemingly relentless march towards promotion. Vincent Kompany's troops dominated from the first whistle and were ahead inside 15 minutes.

Top scorer Tella headed in his 12th goal of the season to reward early home pressure and ensure the Clarets matched a club record of scoring in 27 league games in a row. The Southampton loanee doubled the advantage 10 minutes after the break, showing quick feet on the edge of the box to make room and fire in his fourth goal in two games.

Tella's fifth in three arrived just three minutes later to secure top honours for Burnley and maintain the table-toppers 17-point advantage over third-placed Middlesbrough, with an immediate return to the Premier League now appearing a formality. Understandably, Kompany was full of praise for his players and insists there's still more to come.

Kompany said, "I'm happy for the team and the fans. The performance was good. The intent was good and the effort was excellent. It was exactly what it needed to be and I'm happy for the win. Now I just want to win the next one and the next one and the one after and try to get better. We are never good enough so are always able to get better."

Watford frustrated at The Vic

Frustration was the over-riding emotion at Vicarage Road on Saturday as Watford dropped more crucial points in their quest to strengthen their play-off bid as they had to settle for a 1-1 draw at home to fellow top-six rivals Blackburn. The Hornets had to come from behind to earn a share of the spoils with Slaven Bilic's boys ruing missed opportunities.

Watford had started well and were playing some attractive build-up play through the thirds, only to fall behind when Ismaila Sarr, debutant Wesley Hoedt and Daniel Bachmann all played their part in allowing Bradley Dack to give the visitors the lead. Chances for Ismael Kone and Sarr then went begging either side of Hoedt grabbing an equalising goal.

Post-match Bilic felt Watford did enough to take maximum points. He said, "Today we started well, and we were constantly coming forward in good situations. There was just a lack of quality when it mattered. That is where we were lacking. I thought generally we played good. We didn't score from a clear chance, but we had three good chances."

Bilic had made three changes to the side that let a two-goal lead slip at Reading. Hoedt was handed a first start as Craig Cathcart missed out with injury, Kone came into midfield and Joao Pedro made his return to the starting XI in place of Keinan Davis. Meanwhile, Imran Louza, Tom Cleverley, Sema and Christian Kabasele were all back on the bench.

Clarets well-favoured by the market

Burnley have enjoyed the upper-hand in league meetings with Watford over the last decade or so. The Clarets have posted W8-D7-L4 in head-to-head encounters since the beginning of 2010/11, with the hosts also boasting a W7-D5-L1 return when facing off at Turf Moor since 2004. However, one of Burnley's only two league losses this season arrived in the reverse.

Burnley 1.738/11 are seven points clear at the top of the table having lost just twice under Vincent Kompany's watch (W20-D8-L2), picking up maximum points in 14 of their past 15 league fixtures. The Clarets only defeats have arrived on the road against fellow promotion hopefuls with the hosts coming into this contest off 10 straight Turf Moor triumphs.

Watford 5.609/2 were expected to be amongst the leading contenders for promotion but the Hornets have been plagued by inconsistency and injury. The visitors have managed only W4-D5-L4 since the start of November, and are winless in four (W0-D3-L1) over the past month. Worryingly, Watford's road record reads just W1-D5-L4 when excluding the bottom-six.

Kompany's crew difficult to dismiss

Burnley have displayed a penchant for forward-thinking football during Vincent Kompany's reign. The Clarets are the division's highest scorers and have notched in each of their past 27 Championship dates, failing to net once at this level in 2022/23. The Lancashire outfit have struck multiple goals in 11 of their 16 Turf Moor tussles (averaging 2.19 goals).

Watford certainly possess the individual quality to make a difference in the second-tier, although the Hornets have struggled in front of goal when visiting the leading lights. The Hertfordshire club have notched just three goals in nine trips to teams sitting inside the top-15, firing blanks on six occasions, including a recent trip to high-flying Middlesbrough.

With Watford struggling for goals fluently, it's no surprise to see 12 of the Hornets' recent 15 fixtures featuring Under 2.5 Goals 1.9620/21 with 10/16 (62%) of their overall away days producing a maximum of two strikes. With that in mind, I'm quite happy to bolster the odds on a Burnley win by backing Burnley to win and Under 4.5 Goals here at 1.9110/11.