EFL Championship

Burnley v Sunderland: Back the Clarets to conquer Black Cats

Vincent Kompany - Burnley
Burnley are unbeaten at Turf Moor under Vincent Kompany

Runaway Championship league leaders Burnley look to move a step closer to the Premier League when they welcome Sunderland on Friday. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is expecting the Clarets to enhance their unbeaten home record.

  • Burnley unbeaten at home

  • Sunderland suffering defensive injury crisis

  • Goals forecast for Turf Moor tussle


Burnley focussed on the bigger picture

Burnley return to action for the first time since their 6-0 FA Cup drubbing at the hands of Manchester City before the international break, a result head coach Vincent Kompany hopes his side can use as "motivation to get better".

Nathan Tella and Ian Maatsen went closest for the Clarets at The Etihad but the Championship table-toppers were outclassed.

Kompany's crew have proven almost flawless in their quest for an immediate return to the Premier League and know three more league victories from their remaining nine matches will rubber-stamp promotion.

However, Burnley have the potential to break the second-tier points record of 106 were they to win at least eight of their final nine fixtures.

Kompany is understandably pleased with progress but insists the bigger picture is key. He said, "It's really difficult to maintain consistency across the season, but, for us, it's really important to set targets. We are thinking more about a cycle. We've got a three or four-year period together. Can we continue that and keep improving the club? That's our aim."

The Clarets' squad is expected to be close to full health on Friday with defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis featuring twice for the club's U21s of late, whilst Belgian winger Manuel Benson appeared just before the international break.

Darko Churlinov is now fully recovered from illness but Jay Rodriguez still requires a little more time to get back up to speed.

Defensive injury crisis cripples Sunderland

Sunderland signed off for the international break with a well-earned 1-1 home draw against high-flying Luton.

The Black Cats equalised late on when Amad Diallo converted from the penalty spot to salve a point for Tony Mowbray's men at the Stadium of Light, keeping the Wearsiders feint top-six hopes alive as we begin the turn for home.

Mowbray has told his players to take it game-by-game as they look to improve a poor run of recent results and stay in touch with the top teams right through the course of the campaign as Sunderland look to finish their first campaign back in the Championship on a high.

However, a defensive injury crisis has disrupted best laid plans for the Black Cats.

Centre-back Dan Ballard was forced off the pitch early in the second half on international duty with Northern Ireland on Sunday and is now considered a major doubt. Aji Alese is out for the season, whilst Niall Huggins and Dennis Cirkin aren't fit enough to feature from the off.

Lynden Gooch and Luke O'Nien could be asked to fill-in at full-back on Friday night.

Clarets firm and fair favourites

Burnley are looking to complete their first league double over Sunderland since 1972/73, following their 4-2 win earlier this season at the Stadium of Light.

The Clarets haven't hosted the Wearsiders in league action since a 4-1 thrashing here in December 2016 but are unbeaten at home to the Black Cats in their past four meetings at Turf Moor (W2-D2-L0).

Burnley 1.511/2 arrive unbeaten in 17 Championship games (W14-D3-L0), the club's longest such run since May 2016, when they last won promotion from the Championship (23 unbeaten matches).

Vincent Kompany's charges are unbeaten as hosts (W14-D5-L0) and have posted W7-D2-L0 when welcoming fellow top-half opponents this term.

Sunderland's 8.207/1 hopes of a play-off place have dissipated over the past six weeks with the Black Cats form dipping.

Tony Mowbray's team have posted top honours just once in seven (W1-D2-L4), whilst the Wearsiders have tabled a solitary success at top-half teams (W1-D3-L4). The visitors have also lost all three contests with the current top-two.

Burnley backed to overcome Black Cats

Burnley's matches at Turf Moor have tended to be high-scoring affairs. Only Swansea (3.05) have seen a higher goals per-game return on home soil with Turf Moor seeing 2.95 goals per-game on average, with 63% of matches breaking the Over 2.5 Goals 1.9420/21 barrier.

In fact, nine of the Clarets past 11 league fixtures here have featured three or more goals.

Considering Sunderland have scored in each of their last 19 Championship games (the longest current run for any second-tier side), plus the fact Burnley have notched in all bar two of their overall league outings, there's a reasonable argument to suggest a high-scoring match-up could be on the cards this weekend with goals favoured.

Back Burnley to win and Over 1.5 Goals @ 8/11

8/11

But the best angle of attack appears to be backing Burnley to win and Over 1.5 Goals at 8/11 on the Sportsbook.

Eighteen of Burnley's 24 triumphs have produced a minimum of two goals, with 12 of the Clarets' 14 home victories following suit; we'll be paid out should Vincent Kompany's side overcome injury-hit Sunderland by any scoreline other than 1-0.

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Mark's 2022/23 Profit/Loss

Staked: 63 pts

Returned: 63.03 pts

P/L: +0.03 pts

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Mark O'Haire avatar

Mark O'Haire

Long-standing betting.betfair tipster and member of the award-winning podcast, Football... Only Bettor.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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