Burnley v Norwich Tips: Keep the Canaries onside

Burnley bag precious point

Burnley boss Vincent Kompany admitted his side were not at the races last Friday night's agonising 1-1 draw at West Brom. Jay Rodriguez's first-half penalty was cancelled out a last-gasp Baggies equaliser as the Clarets spurned the chance to go top of the Championship ahead of the weekend's games on Saturday.

Burnley never got into their stride in the West Midlands; Kompany's charges were second best to every ball in the first half and were fortunate to go into the half-time interval in front. And the Clarets were put under plenty of pressure thereafter with a backs-against-the-wall effort in the final quarter that eventually resulted in the late leveller.

And post-match Kompany admitted his players paid the price for fatigue. He said, "In the end, I've been in the game long enough to recognise that it's a good point. It's the first time we looked a little more leggy. Just playing that 100 minutes proved too much for us in the end. We didn't take care of the ball and a lot of it was due to the players being tired."

Kompany could look to freshen his team up against Norwich with deadline-day signings Jordan Beyer and Halil Dervisoglu both looking to be involved from the off.

Norwich extend winning streak

Norwich chief Dean Smith has warned his Canaries squad that there are hard yards ahead despite enjoying a five-game winning surge that's catapulted the Norfolk club to within a point of the Championship summit. City were cushy 3-0 winners over Coventry last weekend, although Smith is keen to keep his group's promotion credentials grounded.

Josh Sargent scored his fifth goal of the season as Norwich brushed aside bottom-of-the-table Coventry last weekend. A bright start by the Canaries saw Teemu Pukki put the hosts ahead; the Finn then teed up a second goal in first-half injury time for Sargent before Todd Cantwell and Sargent combined to put substitute Kieran Dowell in for a late third.

Smith said: "It's never easy to win five games on the trot in any league, let alone this one, so obviously I am very pleased with the result. It keeps the momentum going, which is important, ahead of another tough game at Burnley. I want to be sat top after 46 games and there is an awful long way to go. It is relentless; you just can't get carried away."

Smith had the luxury of leaving Adam Idah and £9million signing Milot Rashica out of the Canaries squad last weekend, whilst versatile defender Sam Byram retained his place in the starting line-up, with left-backs Dimitris Giannoulis and Sam McCallum on the sidelines long-term. Isaac Hayden is back in light training but not expected to return to action just yet.

Relegated pair faring well

Burnley have suffered a solitary league defeat in the last eight meetings with Norwich (W4-D3-L1); that reverse came in the duos most recent head-to-head at Carrow Road during their doomed Premier League campaigns in April. Back at Turf Moor, the Clarets boast an excellent W6-D1-L0 recent record when welcoming the Canaries for league action.

Burnley 2.3411/8 are proving to be a tough nut to crack under Vincent Kompany's watch (W3-D4-L1) with the hosts impressing when dispatching Millwall (2-0) and Wigan (5-1) over the past fortnight. The Clarets are ranked fifth on Expected Points (xP) table with an Expected Goals (xG) process that places the hosts inside the top-10 of the Championship thus far.

Norwich 3.4012/5 were winless from their first three fixtures of the Championship campaign yet the Canaries have quickly found their groove with five successive victories, scoring twice or more on four occasions. Dean Smith's side are second in the xP rankings with City returning a +0.59 xG supremacy pre-game through their opening eight encounters.

Canaries can edge close encounter

The market is shaded towards Under 2.5 Goals 1.814/5 coming into the weekend with an expectation that two of the division's leading lights could cancel each other out under the lights at Turf Moor. A chunky 10 (63%) of the two teams' combined 16 league fixtures have featured fewer than three goals this season, although the duo offer a lot going forward.

Burnley and Norwich have each failed to score just once since Premier League relegation and nine (56%) of those aforementioned 16 matches have paid out for Both Teams To Score 1.758/11 backers. The Championship has only delivered a 48% win-rate for BTTS this term so instead I'm happy to turn my attention to the Bet Builder, whilst getting the guests onside.

Norwich Double Chance and Over 0.5 Goals is rated as a 1.804/5 shot on the Bet Builder and looks a generous alternative option. Neither of the pair are yet to be involved in a goalless game in 2022/23 and the Canaries extra class could tell with Dean Smith's side arriving in formidable form as they seek another Championship crown.