Burnley v Blackburn Rovers: Back against a goal-fest at 21/20

• Scott Parker can't guarantee what will be available to him

• Eustace teams rarely open up against the big hitters

• Both sides have outperformed their xG considerably

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Scott Parker and Burnley host East Lancashire rivals Blackburn Rovers on Saturday afternoon with pressure on to come away with a result after a farcical couple of weeks.

Their season could not have started better having spanked fellow fallen Premier League foes Luton Town 4-1 on opening day then Cardiff City 5-0.

Chaos has reigned since with the transfer window reaching its conclusion. Six of the players involved in those first two games have moved on at the time of writing while James Trafford, Maxime Esteve, Josh Brownhill, Vitinho and Lyle Foster are being linked elsewhere.

Bodies are coming through the door but it's feeling increasingly like a late dash to bolster a squad that has gone from bloated to skinny in a matter of weeks.

Burnley's quality is defying the numbers

The feeling amongst fans has not been helped by recent results and performances.

Those opening two games saw Burnley score an unsustainable nine goals from 2.27xG and just 20 shots at goal, recording an xGD of +0.22. Changed teams against Sunderland and Wolves were comfortably beaten, managing seven shots combined across the two 90's.

The quality of their chance creation has been limited and that may not improve with further changes to the XI, particularly with some signing late in the day.

The positive is that for the concerns in attack, they aren't giving much away. Across their three league matches, they have conceded just five big chances and conceded two goals.

Rovers should be tighter

John Eustace started last season excellently as Birmingham City manager, beginning the campaign undefeated in five and this year is running similarly with two wins and a draw from his opening three.

A surprise factor has been the number of goals scored in their matches with both sides finding the net in all three games and Rovers' goal tally over double their xG total.

Rovers have so far played two newly promoted sides and Norwich City, who are undergoing change under new management. Burnley is a completely different test given the pedigree of the players remaining and their manager, not to mention the derby factor.

The season is nowhere near finished yet but the expectation will definitely be that they finish the season in the top six as one of the big-hitters. Eustace has now managed against top six opposition on 19 occasions and has seen under 2.5 goals scored in 14 of those, including all seven matches last season, five of which were as Blackburn Rovers manager.

The team dominating play on Saturday are in a state of flux while the visitors will willingly sit in and pick their moments to go. Backing under 2.5 goals at 21/10 feels like the option to take.

Now read Jack's Championship tipsheet for the 3pm kick-offs on Saturday!