Bristol City v Cardiff: Target Twine in Severnside showdown

• Bristol City's poor Severnside record

• Cardiff buoyant after first win

• Twine appeals in the SOT market
  

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Bristol City v Cardiff
Sunday October 6, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports

Bristol City denied in midweek

Bristol City kept their first clean sheet of the campaign as the Robins and Sheffield Wednesday played out a shot-shy stalemate at Ashton Gate in midweek. Liam Manning's men edged the encounter, although Anis Mehmeti, Joe Williams and Mark Sykes were all denied by Owls' keeper James Beadle when managing to breach the visitors' rearguard.

It took 80 minutes for Wednesday to register an effort on-target and Manning was pleased with the defensive display. He said, "We've conceded a lot of goals this season so to keep a clean sheet is a massive plus. I've a frustrated dressing room that we didn't convert the chances, but we looked really solid, which I couldn't have said four or five games ago."

Manning made two changes from the side who drew 1-1 with Swansea - Cam Pring and Joe Williams replaced Haydon Roberts and Max Bird respectively, whilst Ross McCrorie made his first appearance of the season on the bench after recovering from a hamstring injury. Bird and Mark Sykes will be hoping for recalls to the starting XI for Sunday's showdown.

Cardiff secure first league win

Rock-bottom Cardiff clinched their first win of the Championship season at the eighth attempt as they beat Millwall 1-0 on Tuesday night. Perry Ng scored just the third goal of the managerless Bluebirds' league campaign as he powered in a first-half header from Joe Ralls' corner. It was a much-improved performance that saw City create plenty.

Cardiff remain at the foot of the table but interim manager Omer Riza was full of praise for his players post-match. He said, "I think relief [is the overriding emotion]. To get that win against a team that's so hard to play against, we had to match that. The boys were solid and dealt with a lot of problems and it gives us a really big boost coming into the derby match."

Callum O'Dowda and Will Fish missed out after picking up injuries last weekend and were replaced by Ollie Tanner and Dimitrios Goutas in the starting line-up. Joel Bagan, back from a red-card suspension, replaced Jamilu Collins on the left-hand side of defence, whilst Manolis Siopis should be available again after being absent for the last two tussles.

Robins odds-on favourites

Bristol City have been beaten in each of their last three Severnside meetings with Cardiff and have only tabled three triumphs in the duos past eight head-to-encounters at Ashton Gate (W3-D0-L5). The pair haven't played out a draw in 15 Championship encounters with the Bluebirds enjoying a W10-D1-L6 supremacy across the 17 match-ups since 2013.

Bristol City 1.774/5 are W2-D4-L2 across their opening eight outings, although the Robins can boast a solid W2-D2-L0 return at Ashton Gate. Under Liam Manning's watch, the home side have posted W10-D4-L5 in front of their own supporters, whilst Expected Points (xP) and Expected Goals (xG) metrics have the hosts reflecting their actual mid-table league position.

Cardiff 4.707/2 ended their seven-game wait for a first win of the season last time out (W1-D1-L6), though the Bluebirds have faced six top-half teams in their eight dates thus far. The Welsh outfit are ranked inside the bottom-three for both xP and xG, and the capital club have also suffered 15 defeats in their 22 away days since the start of last term (W9-D3-L15).

Take Twine in the SOT market

Bristol City look a little too short to support here, but with Cardiff largely failing to impress, I'm happy to leave the Match Odds alone ahead of Sunday's contest and instead start by opposing a high-scoring clash. Nine of the last 11 meetings between the pair have featured Under 2.5 Goals 1.875/6, as have 10 of their combined 16 Championship fixtures this season.

However, we can back Under 4.5 Goals and Scott Twine 1+ Shot on-Target here at a much more appealing 1.814/5. The long-range specialist missed the target in midweek but has landed the bounty in five of seven starts this term, as well as in 11 of 15 outings of 25 minutes since signing for the Robins, with a very impressive 0.98 on-target per-90 record.]

Twine has operated in the number 10 role in his last two outings with Liam Manning keen to give the attacking midfielder an "element of freedom". The 25-year-old had started on the left wing prior to his positional switch last weekend and should now be more involved in support of lone striker Sinclair Armstrong in Bristol City's attack.

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