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Atletico have q great home record
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Shakhtar can score on the road
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Ignore Dortmund and PSG result
Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk (Wednesday, 20:00)
In Group H, Porto and Shakhtar face off with a place in the knockout stages at stake.
Both teams have nine points, with Porto currently occupying second place behind Barcelona, by virtue of having won the reverse fixture 3-1. Aside from their two losses to Barcelona, the Portuguese club have won the other three games in the group with some ease and with home advantage, are rightly considered favourites.
Shakhtar put themselves back in contention with a surprise 1-0 home victory against Barcelona at the start of November. They come into this match in good form, off the back of three successive wins and having not conceded in four games.
The fact that Shakhtar have to go for the win here suggests that it will be difficult for the visitors to keep another clean sheet. Combine both teams to score with under 4.5 goals at 11/82.38.
Borussia Dortmund v PSG (Wednesday, 20:00)
In Group F, Borussia Dortmund have the chance to strike a major blow to PSG.
The Germans are top of the group and safely through to the last-16. PSG occupy second place with seven points from their five games (W2 D1 L2). Though they could retain their qualification spot with a loss or a draw, they need to win to make absolutely sure that they are not leapfrogged by either Newcastle or AC Milan.
PSG are unbeaten in five (W4 D1), but as we have seen over the years, their dominance in Ligue 1 is not ideal preparation for the intensity that the Champions League can bring. Dortmund are struggling in their own domestic competition, with just one win from their last six Bundesliga outings (D2 L3), but they have finished strongly in the Champions League, winning each of their last three games.
This looks like a match where it's best to avoid the result, with Dortmund's desire to win the group, perhaps being underestimated by the oddsmakers. Combine Kylian Mbappe to score, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 8/52.60.
Atletico Madrid v Lazio (Wednesday, 20:00)
Atletico Madrid's match with Lazio will decide who wins Group E.
Both have already qualified for the Champions League knockout stages. Atletico are currently top with an extra point over Lazio, so the Italians will need a win to usurp them. That doesn't seem likely given Atletico's home record this season, with the LaLiga giants having won all ten of their games at the Metropolitano Stadium.
In contrast, Lazio are struggling on the road. They have failed to win any of their last four away games (D1 L3). This includes their 1-1 draw at Verona over the weekend.
An Atletico Madrid win and both teams to score looks overpriced at 11/43.75. Of those ten home wins we mentioned, this bet has landed in eight of them.