Tottenham v Milan: Back Spurs at evens to show their mettle

• Spurs have been strong at home

• Milan fall short on the road

• Tottenham attractive at evens

Tottenham require immediate bounce back

Tottenham have endured a torrid week. They were knocked out of the FA Cup by Championship side Sheffield United last Wednesday. On Saturday, assistant boss Crisitian Stellini presided over a 1-0 defeat at Wolves in his final game in charge, with familiar issues in front of goal continuing to cause concern.

With Antonio Conte only returning to work on Sunday after recovering from his gall bladder surgery, Tottenham had been looking to send a message of immediate improvement after the FA Cup debacle.

Spurs showed plenty of intent, firing in 21 shots at Molineux, yet only managing to land six on-target from a cumulative Expected Goals (xG) figure or 1.21.

Pedro Porro provided a glimmer of hope as he took advantage of Emerson Royal's absence to try to break the deadlock, hitting the woodwork with a free-kick on the stroke of half-time. But overall, it was another disappointing display from a side that has been plagued by inconsistency this season.

Speaking post-match, Stellini said: "Antonio's return will be a massive boost for us until the end of the season. It is important that Antonio is back. We want to have him back with a different result, and the team show to Antonio it is alive. They want to win, they want to control the game, they want to dominate the game. We know we can improve for Antonio."

Milan's winning streak ended in Florence

Milan's resurgence shuddered to a halt on Saturday as the Rossoneri saw their four-match winning streak ended during a deserved 2-1 defeat at Fiorentina, a result that left AC outside the top-four in Serie A.

With Rafael Leao and Rade Krunic suspended, plus Brahim Diaz and Matteo Gabbia unavailable, Stefano Pioli's men always looked off it.

Post-match, Pioli acknowledged Fiorentina 'played better', but promised the Champions League showdown with Tottenham will be 'a very different match.'

Pioli said, "Fiorentina played better than us. That is not because our minds were on Tottenham, we simply should've done better in many areas. This is a setback that we could've done without. But this performance won't influence us against Tottenham. It will be a different match, and we will be ready for that challenge when it comes."

Pioli has a number of selection conundrums ahead of the clash. Ismael Bennacer isn't yet fully match fit, Brahim Diaz remains doubtful, although Rafael Leao and Rade Krunic are both available to feature from the off.

Olivier Giroud is reportedly suffering from flu, whilst Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Sergino Dest and Tiemoue Bakayoko were not registered.

Tottenham appeal at the prices

Tottenham's 1-0 defeat in the first leg of this Champions League last-16 tie was their first reverse in five meetings with Milan (W2-D2-L1) in all European competition.

The Rossoneri head to the capital having won just once in 21 previous trips to English outfits in continental competition (W1-D7-L13), losing their last three visits to London by an aggregate 9-1.

Tottenham 1.981/1 have been beaten in four of their past six home Champions League knockout matches, yet Spurs have also progressed from two of their last three European ties when losing the first leg.

Having overcome Man City, Chelsea and West Ham without conceding in three successive home outings, Antonio Conte's men should be confident here.

Milan 4.30100/30 have been eliminated from just three of 21 previous European Cup/ Champions League knockout ties when winning the first leg. However, they have appeared vulnerable when travelling to elite opposition; exclude the bottom-eight and the Rossoneri have returned W1-D2-L4 on the road in Serie A, as well as losing heavily at Chelsea in Europe.

Capital goals?

I'm happy to support Spurs to win this match in 90 minutes at 1.981/1 quotes on the Betfair Exchange, knowing Tottenham's top gear is a level above what Milan are capable of competing with.

I was almost seduced by the attractive 2.1011/10 available on Over 2.5 Goals this midweek considering the circumstances surrounding the encounter.

Over the past three Champions League campaigns, and looking specifically at last-16 second leg showdowns, all bar one of those 24 matches produced a minimum of two goals.

In fact, 18 (75%) of those matches featured Over 2.5 Goals and an early goal (in either direction) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium could really open things up.

Money back as a free bet on the Betfair Exchange!

You can earn up to £10 as a free bet on the Betfair Exchange by backing AC Milan to qualify.

Should the Italians fail to do so, you will be credited with the amount upon settlement. However, we have chosen this selection for a few reasons, and we have landed 4/5 picks since the turn of the year.

So, why Milan?

• AC Milan have been eliminated from just three of their 21 previous European Cup/UEFA Champions League knockout ties when winning the first leg.
• Tottenham have lost four of their last six home matches in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages (W2), including each of the last two.
• Milan have won their last three UEFA Champions League matches, last having a longer such run over a single season between February and April 2005 (5).
• Tottenham have conceded the first goal in five of their seven UEFA Champions League games this season.

Head over to the Betfair Exchange now and back Milan to qualify for the quarter-finals at 1.768/11, knowing if we fail, your free bet will be credited upon settling.

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