RB Salzburg v Chelsea: Back Blues for all-important win

• Chelsea remain unbeaten under Potter
• Blues boast impressive defensive numbers
• Salzburg winless against England opposition

Salzburg held at home

Austrian Bundesliga leaders Red Bull Salzburg were unable to extend their two-point advantage at the summit when playing out a 0-0 draw with second-placed Strum Graz on Saturday. Die Rotten Bullen wasted two good opportunities in front of goal and required a vital intervention from defender Strahinja Pavlovic to keep the contest level.

Having failed to score for the first time this term, head coach Matthias Jaissle preferred to focus on the positives. Salzburg were forced to field 18-year-old debutant Lawrence Agyekum after Luka Sucic suffered an injury in the warm-up; the Ghanaian made a reasonable impact behind the exciting front pairing of Junior Adamu and Noah Okafor.

RBS are already without the services of Justin Omoregie, Fernando, Ousmane Diakite, Nicolas Capaldo, Sekou Koita and Dijon Kameri but 36-year-old captain Andreas Ulmer is expected to return after a recent knock. Meanwhile, highly-rated youngster Benjamin Sesko is hoping to earn a recall to the starting XI in Salzburg's attack-minded XI.

It's been an emotional week in Salzburg following the death of Red Bull co-owner Dietrich Mateschitz. The 78-year-old was the driving force behind the energy drink establishment and in 2005 bought his home-town club Austria Salzburg, reinventing and transforming the side into the modern day domestic juggernaut.

Chelsea denied at the death

Casemiro's looping stoppage-time header denied Chelsea victory against Manchester United at Stamford Bridge on Saturday evening in a dramatic finale. Jorginho's late penalty looked to have given the Blues a narrow win, breaking the deadlock after substitutes Scott McTominay and Armando Broja tangled at a corner three minutes from time.

However, Chelsea chief Graham Potter admitted his side didn't deserve top honours with the Blues boss forced into a tactical substitution after only 36 minutes when defender Marc Cucurella was taken off and replaced by Mateo Kovacic in an attempt to exert some midfield control. It led to an improvement but not enough to cause United any serious trouble.

Across the contest as a whole, the capital club struggled to build any sort of attacking momentum, with Raheem Sterling disappointing and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang unable to demonstrate his usual sure touch in front of goal.

Still, the Londoners remain unbeaten under Potter's watch with five clean sheets from their past six encounters.

Speaking post-match, Potter said: "Lots of positives in terms of the amount of effort. Manchester United were better than us for the first 30 minutes and we had to respond, and I felt we did. The boys gave everything, when they score as late as you do there is a feeling you've dropped points but over the course of the game a point is probably about right."

Blues fair odds-on favourites

The only previous meeting between Salzburg and Chelsea came on MD2 when the duo played out a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge. The Blues dominated without reward that night in Graham Potter's first fixture in charge of the Londoners; that stalemate means Salzburg are still winless in all seven European matches against English opposition (W0-D2-L5).

Salzburg 5.104/1 remain undefeated in Group E, but failure to convert draws into wins has been the downfall for the Austrian champions, who have lost their grip on top spot. Matthias Jaissle's side have twice failed to hold onto winning positions in the pool yet know progression remains in their hands. Salzburg are unbeaten here since February 2021.

Back-to-back wins against Milan have put Chelsea 1.784/5 in command and the Blues have largely impressed since Potter arrived at the club (W5-D3-L0). In the Champions League, only Manchester City (1.79) are giving up a lower Expected Goals Against (xGA) total than Chelsea (1.81) with the visitors allowing just eight on-target attempts thus far.

Chelsea can edge tight tussle

Group E of the Champions League has been relatively tight with just two of the eight fixtures featuring Over 2.5 Goals 1.875/6, whilst at least one side has failed to score in half of those eight encounters. The average goals per-game from the pool comes in at 2.13 yet the market is expecting 2.80 goals in Tuesday night's early kick-off from Austria.

Considering the state of play on the penultimate round of group action, I'm quite happy to oppose a high goals total and keep an improving Chelsea outfit onside. The Blues have allowed only three goals in eight outings under Graham Potter and the 2.001/1 on Chelsea to win and Under 4.5 Goals this midweek hold plenty of appeal.

Across all competitions, none of Chelsea's contests this season have produced five goals or more, and only one of Salzburg's last 17 Champions League clashes have concluded with Over 4.5 Goals since November 2020.