UEFA Champions League

Real Madrid v Chelsea: Boost the holders' price to win-to-nil

Carlo Ancelotti
Carlo Ancelotti can steer Real Madrid to another Champions League win

Paul Higham is expecting Real Madrid to get a first-leg lead against Chelsea in their Champions League tie at the Bernabeu on Wednesday.

  • Chelsea not scored a goal in last three games

  • Real Madrid scored in last 30 home UCL kockouts

  • Back 7/2 Bet Builder double on Vinicius & James


European kings Real chasing yet another title

The defending champions suffered a shock 3-2 home loss against Villarreal over the weekend, which likely ends any glimmer of hope they had of catching Barcelona in the league - so it's full steam ahead in search of a 15th European Cup success.

It's the third season running they've played Chelsea in the Champions League knockouts, with the series split 1-1 and each time the winner going on to lift the trophy, so it's a good omen for whoever progresses.

Carlo Ancelotti is an expert at this competition and they've won their last three knockout ties against English clubs, while also beating Liverpool in last year's final as well as this year's last 16 to add to victories over Chelsea and Man City.

They've had the home leg second to depend upon in all of those latest wins though, so it'll be interesting to see the tactics at the Bernabeu as they go into this tie as big favourites.

Struggling Chelsea hoping for Lampard boost

Chelsea look a shambles this season, with new owners sacking Thomas Tuchel, spending hundreds of millions on players, installing a young, new manager to lead their long-term project in Graham Potter - who lasted all of seven months before Frank Lampard's return.

Switching managers has never really stopped Chelsea from winning things though, and we've seen this movie before when Roberto Di Matteo won the 2012 Champions League as caretaker manager.

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Chelsea won the game at the Bernabeu last season, if not the tie, losing a crazy contest 5-4 on aggregate, and overall have lost only once in seven games against Real Madrid for the lowest losing percentage against the Spanish giants in European competition.

And so this expensively-assembled Chelsea squad has plenty of talent in it that is capable of causing an upset - if Lampard can find the right formula.

Scoring goals a problem for Blues

Real Madrid are 8/11 favourites for victory in Spain, with the draw priced up at 11/4 and Chelsea a whopping 4/1 for the away victory.

The Blues winning just one competitive away game in their last 13 tells its own story.

But as well as Real's European pedigree, a big reason for Chelsea's odds lies in their inability to find the back of the net, having drawn a blank in their last three games and only mustering 13 away goals in the Premier League all season.

Contrast that with Madrid having scored in their last 30 home Champions League knockout ties and you can see what Chelsea are up against.

Back Real Madrid to beat Chelsea to nil

9/5

With Madrid European experts as they are, they're unlikely to dive in and leave themselves open for Chelsea too much, so you'd have to back against both teams to score at 9/10.

Madrid's last five Champions League quarter-final home legs have produced over 2.5 goals, but unless they start to run riot it's hard to see this being a goalfest given how Chelsea have played recently.

It's 5/6 on under 2.5 goals here, while a Real Madrid win and under 2.5 goals weighs in at 11/4 and our fancy here for a Real Madrid win to nil can be backed at 9/5.

Back a Vinicius & James Bet Builder

Karim Benzema's last 10 Champions League goals have been scored against English sides and all in the knockout rounds - including four against Chelsea in last season's tie.

Benzema's Evens to score again and extend that streak here.

Vinicius Junior is Real's other big superstar with six goals and three assists in the competition this season, while he got an assist in each leg against Chelsea last season.

I think Vinicius could get a goal here at 21/10 but for a safer bet he's available at 5/6 in the score or assist market.

With Kai Havertz struggling in front of goal, Raheem Sterling may be Chelsea's best chance as with 27 Champions League goals he's second only to Wayne Rooney as English goalscorers in the competition.

Sterling is 9/2 to score anytime but perhaps a more realistic 13/10 for a shot on target. Former Atletico man Joao Felix could also be a worthy Bet Builder including at 10/11 for a shot on target - as he's managed in nine of his last 12.

What looks great for a Bet Builder though revolves around what could and should be a brilliant clash between Vinicius and Reece James down Chelsea's right side, and that fascinating battle could go a long way to deciding the contest.

Both will go at it and although James doesn't give away too many fouls he doesn't play a star like this every week, while Vinicius has more fouls than anyone else on the Real Madrid team this season, so backing both of them for 2+ fouls makes sense.

Back Vinicius & James 2+ fouls @

7/2

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