Paris-SG vs Bayern Munich: Thrilling night of goals on cards in France

• PSG hit by illness and protests

• Bayern favourites to win in Paris

• High goals the smart selection

Paris-SG vs Bayern Munich
Tue, 20:00 GMT
Live on BT Sport 2

PSG in poor form

Even thought they're away from home Bayern are favourites to win in Paris on Tuesday night and close PSG watchers would freely admit this is a fair state of affairs.

The home team are enduring their worst run of form of the season and have problems on and off the pitch ahead of this potentially thrilling Champions League Last 16 first leg.

PSG are 2.767/4 to win on the night, with Bayern 2.6213/8 and The Draw 3.8514/5. Given how the two sides have performed in the past two weeks it's difficult to argue with those odds.

Paris have lost their last two matches across all competitions and faced fan protests at the weekend as tensions mounted ahead of this Parc des Princes showdown.

Arch-rivals Marseille knocked PSG out (2-1) of the French Cup last Wednesday night before Monaco inflicted an even more humiliating 3-1 defeat on Paris in the league on Saturday afternoon.

Illness and protests

A virus hit the PSG squad before the Monaco match, a disruption manager Christophe Galtier could have done without ahead of this tie.

Then, on Sunday morning, 200 to 300 PSG fans turned up at the club's training ground to protest against recent poor performances and what they feel is a lack of respect from some players towards the fans in recent times.

As this tie draws nearer you sense tension mounting in the PSG ranks, with recent memories of so many disasters during the knockout phase of this competition in recent seasons still painfully fresh in the minds of so many players, staff and supporters.

The glimmer of hope for PSG is that Kylian Mbappe may be available. The World Cup Golden Boot winner was initially ruled out for three weeks when he suffered a muscle strain on February 1.

Yet he returned to training on Sunday morning, and will train again on Monday. If he comes through that second session unscathed, he's likely to be included in the squad for this match, although latest reports suggest he's more likely to be a substitute than in the starting line-up.

Visitors in better shape

Bayern's build-up to the game has been altogether smoother. After three draws from their opening three games when the Bundesliga resumed on January 20, Bayern have since won three matches, scoring 11 goals in the process.

The winter break in Germany that followed the World Cup potentially hands Bayern a huge advantage: their players should be physically and psychologically fresher, having had a month to rest and re-set after Qatar 2022.

With the Match Odds market looking fair, the goals markets in general, and various Overs prices in particular, offer better opportunities on the game.

Overs the smart pick

There's good reason to believe this will be an open encounter with scoring chances at both ends rather than a tight and low-scoring affair. For PSG, Lionel Messi and Neymar are expected to start and, if needed, Mbappe may appear off the bench.

Such star-studded quality in attack stands in contrast to PSG's recent defensive performances: they've kept just one clean sheet in nine games against top-flight opposition since returning to action after the World Cup, conceding an average of 1.56 goals a game across those nine matches.

Bayern's prolific scoring form in recent weeks suggests they should be dangerous in the final third, while the long-term absence of Manuel Neuer with a broken leg makes the visitors more vulnerable in goal.

On the Goals Lines market Over 3.0 is available at 1.855/6 and this looks a smart selection. With this pick, you'll get your stakes back if the game has exactly three goals, and make a profit if the game has four or more goals.

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