Man City v RB Leipzig Tips: Back Haaland to drive 8/1 Bet Builder

Dave Tindall
14 March 2023
4:00 min read

Pep Guardiola has his eyes on the Champions League trophy

Manchester City vs RB Leipzig
Tue 14 Mar, 20:00

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Manchester City are tipped go through to the last eight with a second-leg victory but Leipzig can find the net too, says Dave Tindall...

Hosts should win but they aren't watertight at home
Man City to win and Both teams to Score is 21/10
Erling Haaland can score in a Bet Builder at 8/1

City have phenomenal home record in Europe

Manchester City made no progress on Arsenal at the weekend - in fact they saw their superior goal difference of seven cut back to five - but a 1-0 away win Crystal Palace was a case of 'job done'.

The victory, secured by an Erling Haaland's penalty, made it four wins in a row for Pep Guardiola's men, the latest three all with clean sheets.

That Palace game was also their sixth away fixture in seven games. That's a lot of travelling and winning four and drawing two of those half-dozen road trips was a commendable effort.

One of the draws came in the first leg of this last 16 clash when City couldn't build on Riyad Mahrez's 27th minute opener. The second half saw Leipzig rally and they gained a deserved draw through defender Josko Gvardiol with 20 minutes to go.

Guardiola seemed more than satisfied with the result and why shouldn't he have been given City's tremendous home record in the Champions League.

They've won 21 out of their last 23 Champions League matches at the Etihad and that includes three out of three in this season's competition: 2-1 v Borussia Dortmund, 5-0 v FC Copenhagen and 3-1 v Sevilla. That's 10 goals scored against two conceded.

Leipzig on strong run in Champions League

RB Leipzig reached the semi-finals of the Champions League in the 2019/20 Covid-hit season and they're on their best run in the competition since then.

Fighting back to gain a 1-1 draw in the first leg extended their unbeaten run in Europe to five matches. They'd lost their first two in the group stage but responded with four straight victories.

As for away games, they lost 2-0 to Real Madrid in the Bernabeu but hit back with a 2-0 success at Celtic and a 4-0 win against Shakhtar and ended up finishing just a point behind holders Real in Group F.

Since the 1-1 draw with City, they've beaten Eintract Frankfurt (2-1) and Borussia Moenchengladbach (3-0) at home although inbetween the Germans lost their only away match: a 2-1 reversal against second--placed Dortmund.

While sitting third in the Bundesliga is notable, a look at the table suggests they aren't the best the best travellers.

Leipzig's domestic away record reads won four, drawn four, lost four and that's the joint-fewest road victories of the top nine in Germany.

City hot favourites to go through

Manchester City are just 1.412/5 to win in 90 minutes and that seems fair enough given that brilliant home record in Europe.

RB Leipzig are 8.88/1 to triumph and send City crashing out at the full-time whistle while The Draw is 5.59/2.

In the To Qualify market on the Exchange, it's Man City 1.21/5 and RB Leipzig 5.69/2.

Whether City go all the way is still open to debate - they're 3.39/4 favourites ahead of Bayern Munich 3.814/5, Real Madrid 7.613/2 and Napoli 8.88/1 on the Exchange - but I don't see them falling at this hurdle.

However, it's not the basic win market I'll be playing.

Leipzig capable of finding the net

One obvious move to boost the City price is to back them to win but not keep a clean sheet. And that Man City win and Both teams to Score option is available at 3.185/40.

So, is there enough in both sides' records to justify it? The good news is that there most certainly is.

Back Man City to win and Both teams to Score on the Exchange @

3.1

City, as usual, have been the Premier League's most prolific scorers at home, firing in 43 goals in their 13 matches at the Etihand. But they've also shipped 13.

Conceding exactly one goal per game on average at home is modest and only three teams in the top half of the Premier League have leaked at a higher rate on their own patch. Or another stat: Man City have conceded just one fewer goal at home than 17th-placed West Ham.

As for Leipzig, despite winning only four of their 12 away games in the Bundesliga, they've scored at a very healthy rate in those matches.

Their tally of 21 road goals is beaten only by Bayern and, as mentioned, they've netted six times in their last two Champions League away matches.

City to win while conceding landed against their last German visitors, Dortmund, and it's worth a bet again this time.

Haaland can set City on their way

It's tempting to put Christopher Nkunku up as a goalscorer bet given that he once scored a hat-trick at the Etihad. Only Lionel Messi has ever pulled off that same feat!

However, the Chelsea-bound frontman hasn't scored since early November, firing blanks in all four matches since he returned from injury in February.

So I'll play the obvious route and use Erling Haaland for my Bet Builder.

Back Erling Haaland for First Goalscorer, Man City to win and Both teams to Score @

8/1

Even prolific scorers need to keep the confidence high so bagging the winner from the spot against Crystal Palace at the weekend was perfect timing after a slightly flat run of two in his previous eight.

Haaland is certainly a beast in this tournament as shown by 17 goals in his last 11 home matches. That's a combined tally in a City/Dortmund shirt.

Adding in the Norwegian to our main bet gives us Haaland for First Scorer, Man City to win and Both teams to Score at around 8/1.

Opta stat

Manchester City have won each of their last nine UEFA Champions League matches against German clubs as the designation home side, scoring at least two goals in each match. The last German club to win away at Manchester City in this competition were a Pep Guardiola led FC Bayern München side in 2013-14.