Man City v Inter Milan Champions League Final Tips: 38/1 Haaland can strike gold

• Haaland to be killer in low-scoring contest

• The striker can land Bet Builders at 13/27.50 and 38/139.00

• Rodri can wipe out 2021 woe in BB at 28/129.00

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City closing in on Treble

There seems something very inevitable about Manchester City winning the treble of Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League.

And yet to do so they'll have to break new ground and conquer European club football's highest mountain.

That's an unusual position. Treble winners in most leagues have just about always been there and bought the t-shirt before.

So is self-doubt just about the only thing that can stop them now? Or is that selling Saturday's rivals in Istanbul short?

Inter seek fourth win

For much of this season it looked as if newly-crowned Serie A winners Napoli would be the most likely Italian side to reach the Champions League final.

But they fell to AC Milan who in turn were ousted by derby rivals Inter in the semi-finals.

While Napoli, like City, would also have been chasing a first triumph at this level, Inter have their name on the trophy three times. Can history give them an extra level of collective confidence? After all, the most recent was in modern memory: the 2010 success over Bayern Munich.

City red-hot favourites to lift trophy

City have always been short in the betting and a check of the exchange's odds history shows that Pep Guardiola's men have been matched at at maximum of 5.04/1. They're now just 1.261/4 to hoist 'ol' big ears' to the sky.

Inter have traded at three-figure prices on the run to the final, a journey which saw them finish second in a group featuring both Bayern and Barcelona before two-legged knockout wins over Porto (agg: 1-0), Benfica (agg: 5-3) and Milan (agg: 3-0). They're now 4.77/2 to win their fourth Champions League crown.

In the 90-minute match odds market, Man City are 1.51/2, Inter 7.413/2 and The Draw 4.94/1.

Is that too lopsided for a final or about right given that Inter could only manage third in Serie A this season, finishing 18 points behind winners Napoli and losing 12 of their 38 matches?

Head-to-head form throws up absolutely nothing: this is the first time the two sides have ever met.

And going down the country route doesn't add an angle either. The four previous finals between English and Italian sides show two wins apiece, Liverpool beating Roma (1984) and Milan (2005) but losing to Juventus (1985) and Milan (2007).

Perhaps West Ham's win over Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League final helps give us a sense of where the power lies though. The Hammers finished only 14th in the Premier League while Fiorentina ended up eighth in Serie A.

Goal expectations could be too high

When Manchester City are in town, goal quotes are always going to be on the high side and that's the case again.

Over 2.5 is the clear favourite at 1.84/5 while Unders is 2.226/5. But I have a feeling that it should be closer.

Inter are a pretty tough nut to crack. They've kept eight clean sheets in their 12 Champions League matches this season and five of those came in the six knockout games.

Andre Onana has been excellent in the Inter goal and won't be beaten easily.

Recent history also says this final may be a far cry from the bonkers six-goal thriller between Liverpool and Milan the last time Istanbul's Ataturk Stadium hosted the final in 2005.

The last three Champions League finals have all ended 1-0 and the one before that was 2-0 to Liverpool. Widening the lens, nine of the last 15 have featured three goals or fewer.

City should win the game and just playing in the FA Cup final last weekend, never mind winning it, will help their rhythm: a vital factor for a Pep team.

Liverpool and Spurs had to wait three weeks from the end of the domestic season until the 2019 Champions League final and that game in Madrid was fairly woeful with both sides clearly out of synch.

Inter also closed out their campaign last Saturday, winning 1-0 at Torino, so they should have some cohesion too.

Haaland ready to be difference maker

The big narrative when Erling Haaland arrived at Manchester City was that a true No.9 like him would be the difference maker in games like this.

It's exactly what City were lacking when losing the 2021 final 1-0 to Chelsea.

Of course, City score so many goals and rack up so many victories that Haaland winners haven't exactly been required much this season.

They didn't need a goal from him in either semi-final against Real Madrid nor the FA Cup final win against Manchester United.

But you can't keep a good narrative down and I'm willing to bet that this is the game where the Striking Viking makes the ultimate difference.

True, he's been misfiring in recent games and one goal in seven is more Emile Heskey that Erling Haaland.

But, y'know, he's scored a ludicrous 52 times for Manchester City this season and averages a goal every 78 minutes.

The biggest stages are where the biggest players thrive - a reminder that Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi shared five goals between them in the 2022 World Cup final - and, in my eyes, this is Haaland's time.

Haaland Bet Builder the way to go

Enough theory, let's get to the bets.

The simple double of Haaland scoring in a City win in 90 minutes still leaves us short of Even money.

But here's the way to boost it: getting short of goals.

When adding in Under 2.5 goals to Haaland scoring in a City win, the Bet Builder price jumps to a much more palatable 13/27.50.

That bet may have landed only five times this season but this is a Champions League final for heaven's sake, not a home game against Southampton.

As a twist and a nod to the 2002 World Cup final when Ronaldo scored twice in Brazil's 2-0 win over Germany, let's also have a little on Haaland netting both Man City goals. A Haaland brace in a 2-0 City win pays a rather whopping 38/139.00.

Rodri to redeem Pep's 2021 error

Pep has won the Champions League twice with Barcelona but came in for heavy criticism in 2021 when going into the final against Chelsea without a proper central midfielder.

It's not the first time he's been accused of "overthinking" but that's the go-to game when pointing out how this floating brain in a jar coach can self sabotage.

The man who would surely have covered that gaping hole in midfield from which Chelsea scored is Rodri. And it's safe to say that the classy Spanish midfielder won't be omitted this time.

So how about the scenario of Inter dropping deep and defending their box with vigour to keep out Haaland and a lurking Rodri firing one in from distance to break the deadlock.

The man with the degree in business administration is 28/129.00 to score first in a City win on the Bet Builder.

Play waiting game with Polish ref

Polish referee Szymon Marciniak is the man in the middle. He also reffed the World Cup final, not showing the first of eight yellow cards until seven minutes into first-half injury-time.

That suggests he'll respect/understand the occasion and let a few tackles go before reaching for his pocket which could make the cards market a good trading opportunity in the second half if the name count is still low.

His yellow card make-ups from the nine Champions League matches he's taken charge of this season read: 3, 8, 5, 5, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5.

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