UEFA Champions League

Liverpool v Real Madrid: Anfield factor gives Reds the edge

  • Mark O'Haire
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 3:00 min read
Jurgen Klopp and Carlo Ancelotti
Liverpool and Real Madrid go head-to-head in a repat of last yeat's final.

Defending Champions League winners Real Madrid head to Anfield to face Liverpool in a mouthwatering last-16 tie on Tuesday night. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire reckons the Reds can pick up a positive first leg result.


Liverpool earn vital victory

Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp admitted it's "too early" to say if the Reds are back to their best after overseeing back-to-back Premier League triumphs and clean sheets against Everton and Newcastle.

The Merseysiders have moved back into contention for a top-four Premier finish, narrowing the gap to just six points with a game in-hand.

Jurgen Klopp.jpg

Saturday's success at St James' Park certainly wasn't seamless.

Liverpool relied heavily on outstanding goalkeeper Alisson on too many occasions for Klopp's comfort, but the overall performance and character was the ideal tonic as they attempt to revive their league season, as well as progress in the Champions League.

Darwin Nunez was finally rewarded for his good work with a goal while the improving Cody Gakpo was on the mark for the second successive game having scored his first Liverpool goal against Everton.

Klopp is also getting key men back from injury, with defender Virgil van Dijk coming through 90 minutes and Diogo Jota looking a serious threat in his cameo.

Klopp said, "When you are not in your best moment you have to fight for this, and that's what we did. It feels great. We haven't had this feeling for ages so it's a really good day. We played really well, but then against 10 we lost for a moment the grip and control, and couldn't get it back. But we still had our moments where we should have scored more.

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Real Madrid leave it late in Pamplona

Real Madrid chief Carlo Ancelotti is confident the La Liga title race remains wide open after Los Blancos sealed a late 2-0 win at Osasuna on Saturday night.

The defending league and European champions remain eight points shy of league leaders Barcelona but Fede Valverde and Marco Asensio's goals were enough to secure a vital victory in Pamplona.

Despite struggling to create chances on the night, against a dogged Osasuna outfit, Ancelotti was pleased with his players trademark grit in adversity with the Italian suggesting, "What we did in the second half, we could have done in the first but I really liked the solidity of the team. It was a complete game, it was important to win, as it keeps the league alive."

Vinicius Junior carried the threat for the visitors with Rodrygo Goes wasting a clear opening after the restart.

The returning Thibaut Courtois was also called into action to make a couple of key stops for a Madrid side that were missing both Karim Benzema and Toni Kroos.

Thumbnail image for 1280 Karim Benzema Real Madrid January 2023.jpg

Benzema's absence was precautionary, and the Frenchman is set to feature from the off at Anfield, although Eduardo Camavinga will fill-in for Kroos with Aurelien Tchouameni also struggling to be fit in time.

Elsewhere, Dani Carvajal has been confirmed as a starter after coming off the bench at the weekend, but Ferland Mendy isn't expected to return in time.

Anfield factor gives Reds the edge

Liverpool are winless in their last six matches against Real Madrid (W0-D1-L5); their longest ever run without a victory against an opponent in the European Cup or Champions League.

The Reds have failed to even score in their most recent two home tussles with the Spanish giants, drawing 0-0 here in April 2021 and losing 3-0 as hosts here back in October 2014.

Despite Liverpool's 2.3611/8 obvious issues this season, the Reds have remained obdurate opposition at Anfield, suffering a solitary Premier League reverse on home soil (W7-D3-L1) and boasting a W3-D0-L0 record in the Champions League group phase.

With key players and confidence returning, the Merseysiders will fancy their chances on Tuesday night.

Real Madrid 3.2011/5 have only won one of their most recent seven away games against English sides in the Champions League (W1-D2-L4), with that victory coming against Chelsea in April 2022.

Los Blancos have been beaten in three of five away trips to top-half La Liga outfits this term and failed to beat Shakhtar Donetsk or RB Leipzig on their UCL travels.

Oppose a first leg shootout

Surprisingly, none of the first four Champions League last-16 first leg fixtures produced Over 2.5 Goals 1.784/5 profit with three of those four fixtures goalless at the break.

Three of Liverpool's past four encounters in the Premier League have featured Under 2.5 Goals 2.245/4, as have five of their 11 league dates at Anfield.

Meanwhile, six of Real Madrid's last eight La Liga showdowns have seen a maximum of two strikes, suggesting the midweek match-up could well go against the obvious expectation of a goal-heavy game.

Back Liverpool Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.95

1.95

With that in mind, I'm happy to keep Liverpool onside and oppose a high-scoring shootout with Liverpool Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals available to support at 1.9520/21 via the Bet Builder.

The rejuvenated Reds are well-capable of clinching a positive result at an atmospheric Anfield.

With this match-up included in Betfair's Bet 5 Get 5 promotion, punters can also get a £5 free bet when they place a £5 Bet Builder on this particular contest on Tuesday night.

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Mark's 2022/23 Profit/Loss

Staked: 57 pts

Returned: 59.34 pts

P/L: +2.34 pts

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Mark O'Haire avatar

Mark O'Haire

Long-standing betting.betfair tipster and member of the award-winning podcast, Football... Only Bettor.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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