Liverpool v Ajax: Goals could be on low side at Anfield

Liverpool v Ajax
Tuesday September 13, 20:00
BT Sport

Liverpool off to a shocker

Liverpool are the 'new club in crisis' after an already iffy start to the campaign became officially worrying during the 4-1 hammering at Napoli last Wednesday.

It's no exaggeration that the Italians could have been 6-0 up at the break. They scored three, missed a penalty, hit the post and had one cleared off the line in a rampant first-half display that left the Reds shellshocked.

Some stability was restored after the interval but Liverpool's current flaws were brutally exposed and it was a shocking way for last year's runners up to begin their bid to make it four finals in six seasons under Jurgen Klopp.

In the Premier League, Liverpool sit seventh after winning just two of their opening six games.

The Reds had a poor campaign two years ago but much of that could be put down to injury. This time they've had problems in midfield but the accusation being thrown at many of their elite regulars is that they're just worn out after challenging for every trophy last season on top of years of Klopp intensity.

Is it a collective malaise with an easy explanation or just a case of some top players coincidentally dropping their levels at the same time?

Flying start for Ajax

A home game against Rangers gave Ajax the chance to make a strong start to the group and they took it with both hands.

The Dutch side outclassed their opponents, cruising into a 3-0 lead after just 33 minutes via goals from Edson Alvarez, Steven Berghuis and Mohammed Kudus. Ex-Spurs star Steven Bergwijn added a fourth after the break to complete a 4-0 rout.

Rangers came in off a 4-0 loss to Celtic in the Old Firm derby which adds a little context but there's no denying that Ajax's clever pass-and-move football was highly impressive.

Domestically, Ajax have made the perfect start with six wins out of six although 15 of their 21 goals have come at home. Nevertheless, they're clearly a side full of confidence and the same can't be said of Liverpool.

The two sides have recent history after being paired together in Group D in the 2020/21 edition of the tournament.

Liverpool won both games 1-0, an own goal giving the Reds victory in Amsterdam and Curtis Jones scoring the winner at Anfield.

Ajax price could tempt many

On first glance, those wanting to take Liverpool on look to have a decent opportunity.

They could lay Liverpool at 1.564/7, back Ajax at 5.85/1 or just take The Draw at 5.14/1.

The latter looks the most tempting of those three choices if you think the Reds really are in crisis.

The counter is that Liverpool's early-season problems have mostly come on the road.

They've taken seven points out of nine at Anfield in the Premier League and that includes the 9-0 romp against Bournemouth, who have managed four out of six points since.

However, the 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace hinted at some vulnerabilities and they only just got over the line against Newcastle when another draw looked on the cards.

However, if you do fancy Liverpool to enjoy another famous European night at Anfield, a place where they have only lost their first home match in two of their previous 46 major European campaigns (W35 D9), then backing the Reds on the Betfair Exchange gives you the chance for your stake back should they fail to do so.

That's right, you can back Liverpool to beat Ajax (max £10) between the price of 1.6 & 2.0 and get your £10 free bet returned if they do not end up winning. Bet below!

Goals market offers best value

This looks certain to be a very different game to the Napoli one when the hosts were vibrant in attack but far from convincing at the back.

Here, we're looking at two sides who knock the ball around nicely and that means there could be lots of good football but perhaps not a glut of goal chances.

The Over/Under 2.5 market looks too skewed to me with Under 2.5 trading as big as 3.412/5 and Over just 1.42/5.

Let's remember that the two meetings a couple of seasons ago featured just a single goal in each match while the Reds have played out a recent 0-0 stalemate at Everton, drew 1-1 at home to Palace and were locked at 1-1 with Newcastle until the 97th minute.

The value has to be Under 2.5 goals at 3.412/5

As for Both teams to Score, 'No' looks a little inflated at 2.789/5 compared to the 1.54 of 'Yes' but it's not as standout as the goals bet.

Diaz can score on Bet Builder

With Mo Salah performing way below his best levels and without a goal in seven Champions League appearances, Luis Diaz is emerging as Liverpool's biggest goal threat.

The Colombian has four goals to his name this season and blasted home the Merseysiders' consolation in that 4-1 capitulation in Naples.

He's only fifth favourite in the Sportsbook's list of most likely Liverpool scorers and that makes him the best Bet Builder option.

I don't fancy goals but Diaz scoring in a 1-0, 2-0 or 1-1 is certainly feasable.

Therefore I'll have a small play at around 14.013/1 of Diaz to Score and Under 2.5 Goals. That landed earlier this season in the 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace.

Opta stat

Liverpool's Jürgen Klopp has won all four of his UEFA Champions League games against Ajax (two with Borussia Dortmund, two with Liverpool), only winning more times against FC Porto (5); only José Mourinho (6) has more Champions League wins against Ajax than Klopp.