With Dynamo Kiev under no pressure to win against Ferencvaros on Tuesday, Dan Fitch is banking on a low scoring match...
"Dynamo Kiev are currently in possession of the coveted third place position that will give passage to the Europa League, by virtue of scoring more head-to-head away goals than Ferencvaros."
Dynamo Kiev 1.910/11 v Ferencvaros 4.57/2; The Draw 3.9
Tuesday 8 December, 20:00
Live on BT Sport Extra
Dynamo in driving seat ahead of qualification decider
Europa League qualification from Group G hinges on the result of Dynamo Kiev's match with Ferencvaros.
After five rounds of games, both sides have a single point, which was earned when the sides drew 2-2 in the reverse fixture. They were both defeated in their other four games, which is hardly surprising considering the quality of the top two teams in the group, Barcelona and Juventus.
It was Ferencvaros that came closest to taking a point from their fixtures against the European elite, only losing 2-1 away at Juventus, who scored their winning goal in added time. At the weekend the Hungarians won 3-1 at Diosgyor, to maintain their unbeaten start to the season in the NB I, which sees them top of the table (P11 W9 D2 L0).
Dynamo Kiev are currently in possession of the coveted third place position that will give passage to the Europa League, by virtue of scoring more head-to-head away goals than Ferencvaros. Dynamo are also top of their domestic league, beating Mariupol 2-1 on Saturday, which leaves them three points clear at the top of the Ukranian Premier League after twelve games (W9 D2 L1).
Low scoring match likely
Kiev really should have won the reverse fixture, in which they were 2-0 up and conceded an equaliser in added time.
There could therefore be value in Dynamo at 1.910/11 to win the match at home. The risk is that Dynamo Kiev still have a number of first-team players absent and have struggled to score goals in Europe.
With a low scoring draw enough to see them through, it might make more sense to back under 2.5 goals at the slightly bigger price of 1.981/1.
Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L
Staked: 287.00 pts
Returned: 313.47 pts
P/L: +26.47 pts