Chelsea play Porto in their Champions League second leg on Tuesday and Jamie Pacheco is reversing his winning bet from the first leg by backing goals at both ends...
"Can Porto get one? I think they can because they’ll be more adventurous as they have nothing to lose. A slightly more inspired night for their forwards or a slightly less inspired one by Edouard Mendy, and we should be in business at 2.01/1 on the Exchange."
Chelsea v Porto
Tuesday April 13, 20:00
Mount exceptional, Chelsea comfortable
Chelsea were just about good value for their 2-0 win in last week's first leg. Thomas Tuchel's men were a little bit more streetwise than their opponents. Chelsea didn't dominate the game and Porto had plenty of chances, but the Blues made far better use of them and by being ahead, were in a much better position to dictate the tempo of the game.
Once again it was Mason Mount who made the difference with a well-taken opening goal. For all their expensive overseas signings, it's the homegrown boy who's been the best of their attacking players. That was his first Champions League goal but it certainly won't be his last.
They were good at the weekend as well, beating Crystal Palace convincingly, and come into this as very strong favourites to progress.
Goalscoring duo back for second leg
There's no disgrace in Porto losing 2-0 to a strong Chelsea side given the gulf in resources but the Dragons will be disappointed not to have scored.
There was a bit of bad luck, some average finishing, some good defending and some fine goalkeeping that prevented them doing that. But on another day they may have scored a couple.
It didn't help that they were without their top two scorers in Sergio Oliveira and Mehdi Taremi. Then again, it shows you that sides like Porto can't really afford to be without such key men in games like this.
Those two are back for this one and come straight from a 2-0 win at Tondela to keep the Portuguese title race open.
Chelsea are 1.834/5 to win the second leg, which technically is at home, but isn't really because, like the first leg, it will be played in Sevilla. It does of course mean that any goals Porto score count as away goals.
So Chelsea are odds-on to win a game they really don't need to win. Will they be desperately looking for a winner if it's 1-1 with 15 minutes to go? Probably not. More to the point, there wasn't that much in it in the first leg - in spite of the final score - and Porto have their most dangerous players back. Add the Blues' lack of motivation to win the game to the equation and you can see why that odds-on quote isn't of much interest.
A draw at 4.03/1 is a perfectly good betting option but if you're looking for a trade, a lay-to-back of Chelsea should be do-able. These games don't always go off at breakneck pace and a sedate first-half that's level at the break should allow you to back Chelsea at odds of at least 2.47/5 and 'green up'.
'No' on both teams scoring was our one and only selection ahead of the first leg and we were obviously pleased to see it pay out. But I was surprised by just how many chances Porto created and once again, it may have been different had Oliveira and Taremi been around.
Part of the reason for that 'no' was also that Porto could keep Chelsea out themselves. I think we've seen enough to conclude Mason and co can get at least one again with so many options up front who are desperate to impress. After all, not many sides will go and get four at Palace this season.
So the question is - can Porto get one? I think they can because they'll be that little bit more adventurous as they have nothing to lose. A slightly more inspired night for their forwards or a slightly less inspired one by Edouard Mendy and we should be in business at 2.01/1 on the Exchange.
Word of warning before we start. There could be some interesting changes to the Chelsea line-up ahead of this one as the boss juggles his resources, so don't get involved until you've seen the starting line-ups.
But if you believe Chelsea can get a goal, or better still a couple, then Christian Pulisic (23/10) or that man Mount (3/1) could be worth a look.
First leg goalscorer Ben Chilwell may make way for Marcos Alonso (11/2) and he's another with a eye for a goal.
That Porto duo of Oliveira and Tahremi are 4/1 and 11/4 respectively while Moussa Marega, expected to lead the line, is 23/10.
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