Chelsea v Dinamo Zagreb: Head to the fringe for value

• Chelsea set to make changes
• Dinamo have awful away record
• Loftus-Cheek and Ziyech make goal appeal

Let's be honest, with Chelsea having already won the group with a game to spare, this isn't the most attractive betting heat you'll ever see.

It's hard to be sure what sort of team the hosts will be putting out here.

In many ways it would make sense for Graham Potter to make wholesale changes. A seeding for Monday's last-16 draw is already assured, while next week brings three huge games - Arsenal and Newcastle in the Premier League, with Manchester City in the Carabao Cup sandwiched in between.

Yet the Blues could also do with getting Saturday's 4-1 mauling at Brighton out of their system, especially those who played and looked rather disorganised, to be frank.

My best guess if that it will be a mix of those who played last weekend and a bunch of fresh faces.

It seems unnecessary to take any risks so it's hard to envisage injury doubts Kepa Arrizabalaga and Kalidou Koulibaly getting a run-out, while likewise it makes sense for Conor Gallagher and Mason Mount to be given the night off given another yellow card in this one would see them suspended for the opening game of the knockout stage.

While the manner of Saturday's loss was rather concerning, it was the first time Chelsea had been beaten under Potter, a manager who won't panic. After all, it's only a few weeks since the Blues were beating AC Milan 3-0 here at Stamford Bridge.

Dinamo lost 4-0 at home to Milan only last week and have claimed just a single point form their four games since beating Chelsea 1-0 on matchday one.

At least they do have something to play for here.

While they can't qualify for the knockout stage of this competition, they could yet be playing Europa League football after Christmas. For that to happen, Dinamo will need to win this game and hope Salzburg fail to beat Milan.

They have nothing to lose so should give it a go and clearly they'd be delighted to face a mix-and-match Chelsea XI.

However, form is not great. Saturday's first defeat of the Croatian league season at the hands of Osijek means it is now just one win in six for Dinamo, while their away record in the Champions League is woeful - they've lost 17 of their last 20 such games.

That's all rather off-putting for those thinking their greater need for victory mean odds of 10.519/2 for the win represents some value.

Certainly it's hard to back Chelsea at 1.364/11 without knowing their line-up - it's worth noting that team news for the Champions League usually comes out around 80 minutes before kick-off.

More appealing options at this stage include backing Chelsea to win with under 3.5 goals in the game - that's a 2.285/4 shot.

Chelsea/under 2.5 is at 4.131/10, although there is no wriggle room in that bet if Dinamo do find the net which they simply have to.

Under 2.5 goals has landed in three of each side's five games in this group so far so perhaps there's value in that at 2.486/4. After all, it's not hard to envisage a disjointed home display, one which focuses on tightening up in the wake of Saturday's horror show.

However, the sub-markets look likely to provide some value somewhere - and it's worth being prepared for that all-important team news.

On the card front, Dinamo right-back Sadegh Moharrami has been carded in four of nine European appearances this season and looks to be in for a busy night with Ben Chilwell likely to be raiding down his flank. With both a club and international manager to impress, he should be lively.

The Iranian's price will be worth a look once that market is formed.

Chelsea shots could also be a good source for profits.

For all Dinamo's need for victory, this will still be a tough game for them, even if the hosts make a raft of changes.

The Croatians are in the top five when it comes to shots conceded in this competition and could be vulnerable to some of the different faces likely to play for the Blues.

I am not at all convinced Gallagher or Mount will play so it could well be Ruben Loftus-Cheek gets pushed forward more in midfield to make those driving runs towards the box.

He looks a tempting price of 4.67/2 to score a goal, while I suggest checking out his shot odds too once they are available.

A similar case can be made for Hakim Ziyech, who loves to let fly whenever possible.

Another with a point to prove after limited opportunities under Potter, he's 3.052/1 for a goal which also looks to have potential.

Remember you can cash-out and get your money back if either man is named on the bench.

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