Chelsea v AC Milan: Back Blues for first win

Chelsea v AC Milan
Wednesday October 05, 20:00
BT Sport 2

Chelsea need to hit accelarator

With just a single point from their opening two games, Chelsea are in unfamiliar position: rock bottom of a Champions League group.

The 1-0 loss away to Dinamo Zagreb spelt the end for Thomas Tuchel and they couldn't hang on to victory in Graham Potter's first game in charge, a 1-1 home draw against Red Bull Salzburg.

Raheem Sterling gave the Blues the lead shortly after half-time in that one but the Austrian visitors levelled 15 minutes from time to secure a second straight draw.

Potter does now have his first win after a Conor Gallagher curler secured a last-gasp 2-1 win away to Crystal Palace at the weekend.

That put Chelsea fifth with a game in hand over the top three but, overall, it's fair to say they've made a stuttering start to the campaign.

They can't afford another off day in this competition and these upcoming back-to-back fixtures against Milan will go a long way to deciding where there European hopes lie.

Four points would give them every chance of qualifying for the knockout phase but if things go wrong the spectre of Thursday night Europa League football would loom large.

Milan looking to extend lead

AC Milan lead the way in Group D after taking four points from their opening two games.

They started with a 1-1 draw at RB Salzburg - "Milan, a half symphony," said La Gazzetta dello Sport after the Rossoneri could only manage a draw in the city of Mozart - although the current Serie A champions struck the post late on.

And with home-soil advantage they overturned Zagreb 3-1 at the San Siro to move into top spot.

Domestically, they're in fourth spot after five wins and two draws in their eight games. They're unbeaten away, their only loss coming at home to leaders Napoli two starts ago.

They recovered from that setback with a 3-1 win at Empoli at the weekend, a game that had a bizarre finish.

The hosts equalised Ante Rebic's 79th minute opener with 90 on the clock but there was still time for Milan to score twice and steal victory.

Milan played Liverpool twice in last season's Champions League but lost both home and away. Have they closed the gap on English sides since?

Chelsea clear favourites to bank first win

These two haven't met in the Champions League since the 1999/2000 season when both group games ended in draws.

History favours Chelsea though. They've lost just two of their 13 home European games against Italian opposition while, surprisingly, Milan have won just one European tie on English soil in 20 attempts - a 1-0 success at Manchester United in 2005.

Chelsea are the clear 1.728/11 favourites to bank a much-needed three points while Milan are 5.49/2 to return home with victory. The Draw is 4.216/5.

I'm leaning towards Chelsea regardless of team news but with the info that Milan have a raft of injuries that opinion in strengthened.

Up front, Zlatan and Divock Origi are absent while Simon Kjaer and Alexis Saelemaekers both came off injured at the weekend.

Saelemaekers would be a big loss as he's scored in both Champions League matches so far.

It means former Chelsea star Olivier Giroud will likely start against his former team, as will ex-Blues defender Fikayo Tomori.

Chelsea are set to be without Edouard Mendy, N'Golo Kante and Marc Cucurella again but their squad is deeper than Milan's.

Aubameyang can strike again

Chelsea's big problem so far this season has been a focal point but that has changed following the signing of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

And the former Arsenal striker is off the mark after an expertly-taken goal against Crystal Palace at the weekend.

If you think he can open the scoring this evening he is best priced on the Betfair Exchange to do so. Click the image above to get involved!

On the Bet Builder, Aubameyang to score in a Chelsea win is around 2.608/5 but I'm also going to add in Both teams to Score.

BTTS has landed in six of Chelsea's last eight matches and in eight of Milan's last 10. In other words, both struggle to keep clean sheets.

Chelsea to win, Aubameyang to score and BTTS is 4.904/1.

The basic Both teams to Score price is 1.9110/11 while Over 2.5 Goals is also 1.9110/11.

I'd be saying 'Yes' to both.

Opta stat

AC Milan's only win over Chelsea was in February 1966 in the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup, winning 2-1 at the San Siro. That third round tie then went to a deciding game - a 1-1 draw - and Chelsea progressed via a coin toss.