Champions League: Who needs what going into Matchday 6?

Mo Salah
Mo Salah's Liverpool are already assured of a place in the Last 16.

Three English sides are through but the likes of Man United, PSG and Real Madrid still have work to do if they want to be in that hat, says Jamie Pacheco...

"Group G was the sexiest one from the outset and its Big 2 have made light work of progressing from it. Barca (16.0) boast an 100% record and will top the Group; Juventus (22.0) only lost to Barca, winning their other four games. Those are two big outright prices for two of Europe’s elite teams."

Who's through?

Bayern have won Group A without breaking sweat, winning four of their five games, drawing the other and racking up 16 goals. Favourites to go all the way at 4.216/5 and the team no-one wants to play in the next round.

Second-favourites are Man City (5.69/2), who are on the same 13 points Bayern are on. They've already won the group ahead of Porto (150.0149/1) with the pair dominating a really poor Group C.

Liverpool (8.07/1) booked their place in the Last 16 thanks to a hard-fought 1-0 win against Ajax.

Better still, they've won the Group, despite that shock home defeat to Atalanta last week.

Group E was another low on depth in quality but Chelsea (15.0) and Sevilla (46.0) will just be glad to have qualified for the next round without any fuss. Frank Lampard's men secured first place after thrashing last year's Europa League winners away in midweek.

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Dortmund (25.024/1) will be in the Last 16 draw as well but still have work to do if they're to win Group F. A win in Zenit would do the trick but a favourable result in the other game would see them top the Group anyway.

Group G was the sexiest one from the outset and its Big 2 have made light work of progressing from it. Barca (16.015/1) boast an 100% record and will almost certainly top the Group; Juventus (22.021/1) only lost to Barca, winning their other four games. They play each other on Matchday 6 and only a big Juve win would deprive Messi and co of winning the Group.

Those are two big outright prices for two of Europe's elite teams.

The two Madrids leaving it late

It's a bit of a mystery as to how Atletico Madrid can be flying in La Liga but struggling in the Champions League in a relatively weak group. They've won just one game from five but their three draws have them ahead of Red Bull Salzburg by one point. Avoid defeat in Austria on Match Day 5, where the hosts are 3.052/1 on the match odds market, and Atleti are through. At 27.026/1 they'll look a value bet if they get the job done in Salzburg.

Real's struggles have been well-documented and it would almost certainly be the last nail in Zinedine Zidane's if they missed out on a Last 16 place. The maths in this one is far from straightforward.

They'll go through if they beat Monchengladbach at home, a 1.824/5 chance, and they'll actually win the Group if they win, and Shakhtar don't. A draw against Monchengladbach, a 3.814/5 chance, would see Real through if Inter go on to beat Shakhtar. It's 25.024/1 that Los Merengues win the Champions League yet again but that doesn't look likely. They may not even make into the Europa League.


As for Inter, it's all-or-nothing for them when they host Shakhtar and it's just 1.331/3 they win, the only result that can see them progress. But even that might not be enough. A draw in the other game, that 3.814/5 shot we mentioned, would mean they're out irrespective of what happens in their match.

It's 60.059/1 that Inter win what would be their second Champions League title, but Monchengladbach (110.0) who will go through if they avoid defeat in Madrid or if the Inter game is drawn, are in the stronger position at the moment.

Italian duo can make it through

The ever-entertaining Atalanta (60.059/1), who went on an excellent run last campaign before being knocked out by PSG very late on in the game, also have one foot in the Last 16. They need to avoid defeat to Ajax (100.099/1) in Group D, who are priced at 2.3211/8. For Ajax, anything less than a win just won't do but at least they know that they're guaranteed a spot in the Europa League if they don't get that win.

Another do-or-die match involving an Italian side is Lazio v Club Brugge in Group F.

A win (1.824/5) or a draw (4.1) sees them progress but a win for the Belgians means they're through. At least Brugge will be in the Europa League if they don't pull it off.

Manchester mission to Leipzig: avoid defeat.

Lots at stake in this group on Tuesday night. Leipzig are 2.77/4 to win at home to Manchester United and if the Red Devils can avoid defeat, they'll have booked their place in the next round. Leipzig get two bites of the cherry: win the game and they're through but draw it (3.8) and it's all eyes on the nearest smartphone for updates on the other game.

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If PSG were to lose at home to Basaksehir, then it would be them missing out if the game ended a draw in Leipzig. But if they were to win, just a 1.132/15 chance, they'd not only make it to the next round but would also win the group in the process.

So, it's PSG in pole position and odds of 12.5 suggests not only that they're almost guaranteed to make it through but could be one of the sides to beat.

As for United, moving across to the Europa League is very much a possibility, so odds of 36.035/1 that this problem-riddled side go on to actually win the Champions League, don't look generous enough.

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