Champions League: Back the 73/1 tactical acca

Potter counter-press might not work

AC Milan v Chelsea
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2

The most striking thing about Graham Potter's Chelsea so far, and particularly prominent in the 3-0 wins against AC Milan and Wolves, is the speed and dexterity of the counter press.

Chelsea are not pressing quite as aggressively as they eventually will, with Potter preferring to gradually change things rather than risk the chaos of a disorganised press, but he has been quick to get his players to charge in packs at the opposition as soon as Chelsea lose the ball.

Wolves were repeatedly undone by this, while the normally defensively sound AC Milan were caught out badly.

It was Chelsea losing the ball, then winning it back immediately, that created a huge gap in the Milan shape for Raheem Sterling and Pierre-Emile Aubameyang to stream forward, leading to a corner from which the lead was taken.

These two are likely to return to action after being rested for the Wolves win.

However, AC Milan may take a more defensive approach on this occasion following their 2-0 win over Juventus at the weekend in which Stefano Pioli's side held just 39% possession and played a surprise narrow 4-3-2-1.

Repeating this approach could limit Chelsea's capacity to counter-press at all, especially if Milan take a more direct approach up to target man Olivier Giroud. Consequently this should be a much tighter game than the reverse fixture.

Back the draw at 3.412/5

Depay-less Barcelona to be stumped

Barcelona v Inter
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 4

Xavi's Barcelona are struggling to play with any real fluency since Memphis Depay's injury, scoring a meagre two goals in their last three matches and losing 1-0 at the San Siro in their last Champions League match.

Although Robert Lewandowski had made an excellent start he has gone quiet without the close connection of Depay; Raphinha isn't settling as quickly, while Ansu Fati and Ousmane Dembele are too direct to link neatly with the centre forward.

Simone Inzaghi's team were very defensive in Italy, holding a remarkable 28% possession and limiting the match to just 12 shots in total.

This won't be a classic, then, instead conjuring memories of Jose Mourinho's infamous victory against Pep Guardiola's Barcelona in the Champions League semi-final.

Inter's 5-4-1 will be as ruthless and rigid as ever, severely restricting space in the final third for Dembele or Raphinha.

Edin Dzeko's double in a 2-1 win over Sassuolo at the weekend puts him in line for a start this game, which only adds to the sense Inter will again get a result.

Having someone to hold the ball up after another of Inter's scrambled clearances can move Inzaghi's team up the pitch - as well as provide a greater threat from set-pieces.

Back double chance Inter/draw at 2.915/8

Motondo & Barisic to attack right-back

Rangers v Liverpool
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Liverpool's 2-0 win against Rangers last week was not reflective of the performance. We expected Rangers' deep defensive line to prove too stubborn for Liverpool to break, and indeed it was only breached by a direct freekick from Trent Alexander-Arnold and a penalty from Mohamed Salah.

At Ibrox, in front of a baying crowd and after Liverpool's defeat on Sunday, the balance of power and self-esteem could easily shift in Rangers' favour.

Alexander-Arnold had a very difficult game at Arsenal but it was telling that Liverpool still got repeatedly opened up on that side after Joe Gomez replaced him.

That's because a big part of the problem is that Jurgen Klopp's midfield just aren't able to cover the wide areas properly, especially with a new 4-2-4 formation that leaves Jordan Henderson and Thiago Alcantara with too much to do.

Liverpool's superiority means the 4-2-4 is likely to stay for Wednesday's game, creating a chance for Rabbi Motondo - threatening in the reverse fixture - to dance down that side of the pitch and combine with Borna Barisic to target Klopp's weak spot.

The chances will be few and far between, but given their defensive resolve in a compact 5-4-1 it might only take one goal to win the game.

Back double chance Rangers/draw at 3.211/5

Tottenham to expose stretched back three

Tottenham v Eintracht Frankfurt
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3

Frankfurt are considerably better when able to play on the break from a deeper position than when forced to hold more of the ball, thanks to the transition-centric football instilled by manager Oliver Glasner.

That's why last week we predicted Tottenham's own low block and speed in the transition would make the German outfit look clumsy - and despite the 0-0 score line, that is more or less what happened.

Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane just aren't connecting properly at the moment, but they came very close on a number of occasions in Frankfurt.

Glasner's 3-4-2-1 can look a little too stretched when his team are dominating the ball, with the wing-backs bombing forward and the defence left scrambling to cover the width, and that allowed Emerson Royal to combine with Son in acres of space on Tottenham's right. But they couldn't seem to find that final pass.

It should be easier on home soil. Tottenham have had a tricky time of late but it should be noted four of their last five matches have been away games, with the only one at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium being the 6-2 victory over Leicester City. Son and Kane should be able to do enough in London to get the three points.

Back Spurs to win with a -1 handicap at 2.56/4