UEFA Champions League

Champions League Quarter-Final Tips: City and Chelsea to suffer in 75/1 acca

  • Alex Keble
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 5:00 min read
Pep Guardiola
Guardiola doesn't tend to do well against Tuchel

A look ahead to the quarter-finals of the Champions League this week and the key battles across the four games, including why Chelsea and Man City could lose...

  • Tuchel to get better of Guardiola

  • Lampard's open midfield a worry at Real

  • Inter and AC Milan to win


Tuchel v Guardiola another titanic battle

Manchester City v Bayern Munich
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

There is no point attempting to predict the minutiae of how the tactical battle will go at the Etihad.

The long history of the rivalry between Thomas Tuchel and Pep Guardiola is defined by unexpected twists and tweaks, by a version of speed chess that is almost always decided not by the initial strategies but the in-game changes made by both of these expert tacticians.

Nevertheless we can predict the overall winner: Tuchel's Bayern.

Thumbnail image for Thomas Tuchel w CL trophy 1280.jpg

At Chelsea, he was able to beat Man City three times in a row by playing in a defensive shape and, cleverly finding ways to minimise Guardiola's key players, hit on the break.

It seems highly likely, then, that he will be able to do this with a vastly superior team at Bayern, who can sit off Man City and force Guardiola into more confused tinkering.

What's more, Man City in their current guise can be a little one-dimensional, or at least easy for a manager like Tuchel to read.

He should be able to swarm central midfield to prevent Rodri from dominating, before manufacturing scenarios that isolate City's back three up against Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sane, and Sadio Mane, rotated back into the team last weekend.

Back Bayern to win the first leg @

7/2

Flat-footed Inter could be blown apart

Benfica v Inter
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Inter Milan are on a six-match winless run in all competitions and have scored just three goals in that time to put Simeone Inzaghi under serious pressure.

Benfica, despite a 2-1 defeat to FC Porto at the weekend, are seven points clear at the top in Portugal and had won eight in a row prior to Friday's game. That difference in confidence should have a huge bearing on the tactical battle.

Inzaghi's Inter prefer to play on the counter-attack, deploying a deep line of engagement in their stodgy 3-5-2 and waiting for the opponent to give away chances, which is the complete opposite to Benfica.

Roger Schmidt's side dominate the ball for long periods before playing sharp vertical football in the German style. Were Inter in better form this would be limited by Inzaghi's approach, but instead the hosts should be able to take a commanding lead.

The main battleground is in central midfield, where Henrikh Mikhitaryan is the weak link.

As he pushes up further than his team-mates, David Neres will be joined by Joao Mario who, drifting inside, will be ready to receive straight passes through the lines to feed Goncalo Ramos.

Inter's quiet, static football should be no match for the speed of thought and fluid movement of Benfica's narrow attacking lines.

Back Benfica to win @

11/10

Disordered Chelsea to be picked off in midfield

Real Madrid v Chelsea
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Frank Lampard has not had much time to work with the Chelsea players, but we have already seen changes.

His 4-3-3 formation in the 1-0 defeat to Wolves was erratic in its midfield shape, with Conor Gallagher pushing too high, while Raheem Sterling and Joao Felix were too advanced as wingers, allowing Wolves to consistently find space in front of the Chelsea full-backs, leading directly to the winning goal.

We know that Lampard teams are generally disordered, with the attacking formation too easily counter-attacked by well-drilled opponents, which is why the trip to the Bernebeu could be disastrous.

Carlo Ancelotti, Real Madrid boss.jpg

Carlo Ancelotti's side are exceptional at biding their time and staying in a game with fairly pragmatic football, before suddenly switching gears and piercing through the middle of the pitch.

Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, and Eduardo Camavinga were all rested at the weekend and will be ready to pick Chelsea apart should gaps appear as the players look to run at their opponent.

Of course, it is possible Lampard will preach caution on the whole and, with N'Golo Kante back, this will not be a walk in the park for Real. But with Chelsea struggling to create chances (their 1.1 xG against Wolves was their lowest for seven games) Real will surely have enough to win.

Back Real Madrid to win-to-nil @

9/5

Shock 4-0 win gives AC Milan the edge

AC Milan v Napoli
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Napoli, 22 points above AC Milan in Serie A and runaway leaders in Italy, were heavy favourites for this Champions League tie until a stunning 4-0 win for Stefano Pioli's side in Naples a week ago.

The only sensible way to preview this game is to assume Milan will look to pull the same trick, with Napoli unlikely to fully work out how to rejig their system in time.

Napoli generally go man-to-man when pressing in open play, and Piolo has become one of the first to work out how to expose this unusual tracking style by going for a hybrid formation.

Milan started in a 4-2-3-1 formation and generally defended in that shape, holding just 39% of the ball and waiting for chances to break (they scored three goals on the counter).

But by moving to a back three in possession, with right winger Brahim Diaz going central, Luciano Spalletti's team were pulled out of shape, allowing Milan to build quickly through the middle before releasing four players into the final third at speed.

Napoli might try to be a little more conservative, but aside from that there isn't likely to be any real change from the hosts - which points to another clinical performance from the away side.

Back AC Milan to win @

9/5

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