Champions League Final: How to trade on Man City v Inter Milan on the Betfair Exchange

• Patterns show increase in UCL final goals

• Back unders pre-match then trade

• Pointers for correct score, first goal time and more

As the Champions League final approaches, it's worth exploring the markets and historical data. By examining these factors, we can uncover valuable insights into the crucial trends that influence the outcome of this significant match.

When you think about the importance of the final, you may expect it to be a tense affair with neither side looking to concede goals. Matches like this typically point to fewer goals. But looking at the market and previous finals contradicts that view.

Bore draws rare in UCL finals

In the entire history of the champions league, roughly 9% of matches have ended in 0-0 draws.

But the last one occurred in the 2002-2003 final. So in the last 20 years, only one, or 5% of the time.

Be wary of the gamblers' fallacy and feeling that a goalless draw is due, as it appears to be a strengthening trend.

You could point to the three 1-0 results we have seen. But two of those were played with crowd restrictions due to the pandemic.

Excluding this decade, average goals have risen from 1.4, 1.9, 2.6 to 3 in the last four decades. More goals means less chance of a 0-0 draw.

With so much firepower on display from Man City, it would be a huge shock if the match ended 0-0.

Back overs or lay unders

Using information that I detailed in a previous article. We can use the markets to 'tell' us how many goals are priced into the betting market.

Looking at the correct score market, we see that the odds for 0-0 are 17.016/1. That means the market thinks this match will have an average of 2.83 goals.

It's a match for backing overs or laying unders, from a trading or betting perspective.

Since 2000 there have been an average of roughly 2.70 on average. That fits the market view of a slightly more open game where teams sacrifice some defensive capability to get that all-important winner.

History points to City win

We can take that 2.83 goals and divide them up between the two teams. But we must take into account a variety of factors to do this.

When we run those numbers, we see the market is allocating just over two goals to Man City and about 0.75 to Milan. That's an average winning margin of 1.3 goals to Man City.

Over the history of the finals, the average winning margin is roughly 1.3 goals. The market is pricing a Man City win along historical lines.

This indicates that a 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline as the most likely outcome. You can envisage an enhanced incentive to score in several scenarios near the end of the match, so again this looks reasonable.

Of course, this hints at the most common scoreline, not the actual scoreline. But as I can attest, if you are doing this long term, that's the key number you should consider.

Whether you are backing, laying or dutching correct scores, it's most likely to average out like this in the long term.

Time of first goal

One popular strategy I deploy in many markets is to back under 2.5 goals before the match starts and trade out before there is a goal. You benefit from a lack of goals or that first goal coming later than expected.

That's riskier on a match where the number of goals is forecast to be over that threshold, such as this final.

On average, over the history of the ECL final, the first goal has been scored around 32 minutes.

I ran some numbers on matches that forecast 2.83 goals, and with this average, you see an average first-goal time of 30 minutes.

So, from a trading perspective, back or lay intending to cash out with this time in mind.

Trading the UCL final in-play

I run these stats to understand what the market 'thinks'.

When the match starts, you can tell if the game is more or less open than the market predicted.

As the match advances, any variation from the numbers I have presented will start to move the odds and, as a trader, that is where you can profit, even without any goals.

As a trader, you can adjust your opening position or buy and sell the shifting sentiment in the market as it adjusts to what is going on in the match instead of what it thought would happen before kick-off.

That's what I'll be doing on Saturday. I'm looking forward to an entertaining match and most likely watching Man City finally bury their Champions League curse.

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