PSG v Bayern Munich
Sunday August 23, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1
No goal glut...but Lewandowski should get one
I'm going to start by addressing the elephant in the room: I'm not interested in any of the prices on the match winner market. Sure, Bayern look a far better side and they'll probably win but this being a final and Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and PSG having been so impressive last time out, albeit against a side a fair few notches below this one, that's not a price for me.
Nor is the PSG win at 11/5, so I'll dodge that one, as well. The draw a 3/1 is arguably the value but then again, not the sort of speculative wager on which to base a same-game multi-bet. Glad we got that out of the way.
Bayern's games have been full of goals of late, with four of the last five in all competitions going over 3.5 goals before that 3-0 win over Lyon; even that one had three. But again, this being a final, I don't see that they're going to bother thrashing PSG just for the sake of it, if they go ahead. They'd much rather secure their win even if it isn't another work of art. As for PSG, they may not see nearly as much of the ball as they did in their last two games and I certainly wouldn't back them to get more than one. So, under 3.5 goals at 4/5 it is.
But whereas I don't think that this will be a goal-filled game, I do think Robert Lewandowski should get one. It's probably the least original pick of any in my same-game multi picks over the past two weeks but that's hardly the point. I'm not sure what else to say about a man with 15 goals in the competition and who has scored in each of his last 10 matches, netting a total of 14 across those games. Except that 4/6 doesn't look a bad price.
Bayern up at the break, Bayern win corner count
If something has happened in each of Bayern's last nine matches in all competitions, it will probably happen again. And in his case, it's that they are awarded more corners. No surprise that this is a battle they tend to in. Not only do they have the lion's share of possession but crucially, they get the ball out wide, always a good way of getting more corners. They had nine against Barcelona alone while PSG have been on the low side in this regard with just four and three in their last Champions League games. 4/11 isn't a chunky price as such but then again, the stats speak for themselves.
I said Bayern's price to win the game was short but that's not to say the price on them leading at half-time at 7/5 is. Against Barca they came out of the traps like a champion greyhound and were 4-1 up at half-time. Against Lyon it was 2-0 and before that, it was 2-1 at the break against Chelsea.
PSG it's worth remembering, were very sluggish in that Atalanta win, going into the break 1-0 down and needing two injury-time goals to get the better of the plucky Italian side. Yes, they were far better against Leipzig from the start but this is a very different kettle of fish.
If I had to shut my eyes and picture the game, I see an early Bayern goal, maybe a 1-0 lead going into the break and then the Bavarians expertly managing the game before adding a second in the second-half and then maybe....a very late third as PSG go for broke or really start to tire. That may not be the most scientific approach going but either way they should be good for a half-time lead of some variety.