UEFA Champions League

Bet Builder Tips: Andy Robson's 4/1 best bet for Champions League Final

Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti
Can Don Carlo do it again?

Real Madrid will go in search of a 15th Champions League trophy when they take on Borussia Dortmund in the final at Wembley Stadium on Saturday night, and Andy Robson has penned a Bet Builder article for Betfair, coming up with a 4/15.00 Bet Builder.

  • Vini expected to lead from the front once again

  • Both teams could record high foul count

  • Goalkeepers on both sides should have plenty to do


Champions League Superboost

Real Madrid are hunting their 15th European Cup/Champions League trophy and should they be successful, they will have won more than double the number of the next best side, which is AC Milan on seven.

Standing in their way is Borussia Dortmund, who are appearing in just their third such final, having won the competition in 1996-97 & lost - at Wembley - to Bayern Munich back in 2012-13. Madrid's European dominance and the odds suggest this will be a routine evening for Carlo Ancelotti's men, so Betfair have decided to offer up a Superboost that is likely to reflect the state of the game.

Dortmund goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has been nothing short of sensational in the Champions League this season, saving 84% of the shots on target he has faced in the competition (42/50). Opta tells us that based on the quality of chances he has faced on target, the average 'keeper would have conceded 14 goals, compared to Kobel's actual total of just seven (excluding own goals).

Not only that, Kobel has the most Champions League clean sheets to his name with six, with his 42 saves averaging out at 3.8 per game in the competition this season.

The Yellow Wall indeed.

The thing is, Dortmund do have a lot to thank Kobel for getting them this far, as of all the sides that qualified for the knockout stages this season, only Napoli (16.9) face more shots per game than Dortmund's 15.3, so Kobel has been kept incredibly busy.

With Real expected to dominate the ball and take the game to Dortmund - who will be happy to sit off - we can expect a high number of shots from the Spanish champions - just ask the guys on the Football... Only Bettor Podcast.

Only three sides have averaged more shots on target per game than Real Madrid in this season's Champions League (5.7), and Ancelotti's men are primed to pepper the Dortmund goal once again at Wembley.

Betfair have boosted the Dortmund goalkeeper - which includes whomever may replace Kobel should he get injured - to make 3 or more saves vs Real Madrid to 1/12.00 - up from 1/21.50!


Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Saturday, June 1st
Champions League
20:00

Leg #1 - Vinicius Junior to have 1+ shots on target

Real Madrid's Vinicius Junior has had yet another excellent season, netting 23 goals in 37 appearances across all competitions.

The 23-year-old has provided a constant threat for Los Blancos in La Liga this season, registering an average of 1.9 shots on target per game, while also displaying his quality in the Champions League, finding the target 1.3 times per 90 minutes in the competition.

Real's dangerman has looked even more threatening in recent outings, registering an average of 2.4 shots on target per match across his last five starts in all competitions. Vinicius played a key role in Carlo Ancelotti's side's semi-final victory over Bayern Munich, accumulating six shots on target over the two legs, scoring twice in the process.

Vinicius has registered a minimum of one shot on target in seven of his nine appearances in this season's Champions League, and I expect the Brazilian forward to test Dortmund's keeper at least once here.

Leg #2 - Eduardo Camavinga to be fouled 2+ times

With the absence of Aurelien Tchouameni due to a foot injury, Eduardo Camavinga will most likely be taking his international team-mate's place in the starting lineup here.

While Camavinga is well known for his susceptibility to committing fouls, Real Madrid's young talent has also been on the receiving end of plenty of unfair tackles this season, drawing an average of 2.2 fouls per match in La Liga, as well as 1.6 fouls per Champions League game on average.

Camavinga has been involved in key battles in recent outings, drawing an average of 2.5 fouls per game across his last eight starts in midfield, and it is certain that the Frenchman will face fierce opponents here. Both Emre Can and Marcel Sabitzer are expected to start for Edin Terzic's side - a pair that have committed a combined average of three fouls per match across Dortmund's last four Champions League outings.

With the Real Madrid midfielder's tendency to draw fouls and Dortmund's midfield pairing's foul record, everything points towards Camavinga being fouled at least twice here.

Leg #3 - Real Madrid to commit 10 or more fouls

Real Madrid's players have regularly struggled to keep their tackles clean in La Liga this season, committing an average of 9.7 fouls per league fixture. Meanwhile, Los Blancos have been even more susceptible to committing fouls in the Champions League, fouling 10.1 times per game on average.

As this competition has progressed, it is evident that Real Madrid have begun to commit even more fouls, with Ancelotti's players fouling 11.33 times per match in the knockout stages.

It is also worth noting that Dortmund have clearly made things difficult for their opponents when playing away from Signal Iduna Park in this season's Champions League, drawing an average of 9.17 fouls per game.

Thus, I expect Real, who have committed a minimum of 10 fouls in each of their last six Champions League fixtures, to keep the referee occupied, fouling at least 10 times in this clash.

Leg #4 - Dortmund to have 3 or more shots on target

Dortmund have looked strong going forward in both domestic and European fixtures this season, registering an average of 5.6 shots on target per Bundesliga match and 4.9 shots on target per game in this competition.

Terzic's men have performed well going forward in the Champions League knockout stages, finding the target 5.33 times per game on average in their matches against PSV, Atletico Madrid and PSG.

The German side will be hoping to capitalise on a Real Madrid defence that has leaked an average of five shots on target per match in this season's Champions League, only facing less than three shots on target in one of their 12 outings.

Dortmund have managed three shots on target or more in 11 of their 12 Champions League fixtures this season, and I expect them to do so for the 12th time here.


Now read LaLiga expert Jamie's piece with 33/1 tip!


For free access to my excellent Opta-powered bet builder stats tool, as well as insightful and smart football betting predictions for all types of bettors, head over to my website, Andy's Bet Club. You can join my growing community over on Twitter or X.

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