Bayern v Paris-SG: Messi and co. to push hosts all the way in 9/2 Bet Builder

• Bayern odds-on favourites to win on night

• New tactics have improved PSG's chances

• Messi and Mbappe in stunning form

Bayern Munich vs Paris-SG
Wed 20:00 GMT
Live on BT Sport 2

Bayern too short with PSG upturn

It would be too strong to say that Bayern Munich are set to face a totally different side in their Champions League Last 16 return fixture in Germany this week, but PSG have improved markedly since their 1-0 defeat on home soil in the first leg three weeks ago.

Depleted and tactically unsure, Paris struggled to impose themselves on the game in that first meeting. More cunning and smarter, Bayern emerged as 1-0 winners, making them 1.241/4 favourites now to reach the last eight.

It's difficult to argue with those odds given the advantage Bayern hold. Yet Christophe Galtier's visitors are right to believe the tie's far from over yet, and are quietly confident they can cause Bayern more problems in this return fixture than they did at Parc des Princes.

Two weekends ago, PSG produced one of their most impressive performances of the season: they travelled to Marseille and beat their nearest challengers in the Ligue 1 table 3-0, effectively ending any hopes Marseille had of competing for the title this season.

3-5-2 shape has rejuvenated visitors

PSG have produced more thrilling, flowing football in other fixtures this season, but it was the ruthless nature of their win over Marseille that stood out: Kylian Mbappe scored twice, Lionel Messi once, and the pair were unplayable, feeding off one another brilliantly in the opposition half.

Crucially, PSG changed their formation to 3-5-2 for that win over Marseille. With Neymar sidelined by injury, they were able to select a proper three-man midfield: Marco Verratti sat, with Vitinha and Fabian Ruiz playing off him.

The system worked perfectly: it gave Messi and Mbappe the security to play with greater freedom than ever in the final third, and encouraged the wing-backs (Nordi Mukiele and Nuno Mendes) to attack with abandon.

Using the same shape, PSG won 4-2 at home to Nantes this weekend. The newly fashioned 3-5-2 will almost certainly be used in this game, too, and gives PSG a better chance of causing Bayern problems.

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Messi and Mbappe the smart picks to score

Bayern are deservedly favourites on the night. They've won six of their last seven matches (W6-D0-L1). They've lost just one of their last 24 matches (W18-D5-L1).

But the price of 1.855/6 on Bayern to win on the night holds little appeal. Do Bayern deserve to be odds-on, considering they don't need to win to go through, and given the progress Paris have made? We think not.

A lay of Bayern is worth considering. Alternatively, back PSG -0.5 & -1.0 at 1.9520/21 on the Asian Handicap market. With this second selection, you'll win if PSG win or if the game ends in a draw, and lose only half your stakes if PSG lose by a single goal.

In the scorers' markets, Messi and Mbappe are playing so well that it's difficult to look past those two to be among the goals.

In three league matches since the first leg against Bayern, Mbappe has scored five times at a rate of a goal every 54 minutes, and Messi three times (a goal every 90 minutes).

Given the duo's imperious form, their prices to find the net here are almost too big: Mbappe is 2.47/5 to score any time, while Messi is 3.02/1.

Our advice is to split your stakes across the pair: that way, if either of them finds the net, you'll make a profit.

And why not try this Bet Builder?