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Bayern 10 points off top spot in Bundesliga
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Lazio struggle on the road against top teams
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Musiala worth backing to score or assist
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Kane foul a key to Bet Builder
Bayern Munich v Lazio
Tuesday 05 March, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports
Bayern's campaign on the cusp of disaster
Bayern Munich have won the Bundesliga title in each of the last 11 seasons, but it appears their grip on the meisterschale has finally been loosened.
Friday's messy 2-2 draw at Freiburg, coupled with a 2-0 derby win for the leaders Bayer Leverkusen at Köln, means that the gap between the top two is 10 points with just 10 matches left to play.
Given that Bayern were smashed 3-0 at home by RB Leipzig in the Supercup and later lost at third-tier Saarbrücken in the DFB Pokal, this is shaping up to be their first trophyless season since 2012.
Coach Thomas Tuchel is set to leave in the summer, but a disastrous exit from the Champions League on Tuesday night would surely hasten his departure.
Bayern's inability to deliver 90-minute displays has been startling, and that draw at Freiburg was their season in microcosm. The Bavarian giants were dreadful in the first half-hour of the game, outfought and outplayed, but although they turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead, they then conceded a sloppy late leveller from a long throw.
A crippling injury list hasn't helped matters. Bayern have rarely been able to field their best XI, and a thin squad has been really stretched.
In the wide attacking areas alone, Kingsley Coman is injured, Serge Gnabry has pretty much been sidelined by injury and illness all season, and Leroy Sané has been forced to play through the pain barrier, although a knee injury has finally caught up with him.
Harry Kane's stellar first season in Germany has papered over some big cracks. The England captain has delivered 27 goals in the Bundesliga alone, but he has also missed some presentable chances in recent games, including the first leg against Lazio in Rome.
French centre-back Dayot Upamecano is suspended after his red card in the first leg, while Bayern have three specialist right-backs injured. That means either Joshua Kimmich or Konrad Laimer will line up at right-back, and teenage midfielder Aleksandar Pavlovic will get another start.
Lazio face season-defining moment
Considering that Lazio boss Maurizio Sarri has spent all season telling anyone who would listen that the team is not a Champions League-level outfit, the competition is now his best chance of defining this campaign as a success.
The Romans are 11 points off the top four in Serie A after losing three of their last four league games, and at the weekend they had three men sent off in a 1-0 defeat against Milan at the Stadio Olimpico.
Lazio played with real intensity against Bayern in the first leg of this tie, but they did give up big chances in the first half, and a clumsy lunge from Dayot Upamecano - a challenge which saw him give away a penalty and be red-carded - turned the game in the Italian side's favour.
Their away form in the Champions League shouldn't fill fans with confidence - Sarri's men were beaten 3-1 at Feyenoord and 2-0 at Atletico Madrid, and they were very fortunate to win 2-1 at the group's whipping boys Celtic.
It's also concerning to look at Lazio's away form in domestic football. Their trips to face the big hitters have been disastrous - they have lost at Bologna, Atalanta, Fiorentina, Milan and Juventus. Only a 2-1 win at ailing champions Napoli stands out.
Mattia Zaccagni missed the first leg but should feature here. Nicolo Rovella and Patric are both out.
Magic Musiala the key for Bayern
With so many attacking players injured, Bayern are having to rely ever more heavily on the young shoulders of German international Jamal Musiala. The 20-year-old scored a magnificent goal at Freiburg on Friday, dancing through challenges before firing a shot into the far corner.
Across the Champions League and Bundesliga he has delivered nine goals and four assists, and he is an attractive price of 11/102.11 on the Sportsbook to provide a goal or an assist in this game. If Bayern are to progress, he will surely have a big role to play.
We can also put together a Bet Builder at 5/42.25 which involves backing Bayern to qualify, Bayern to get over 5.5 corners and Harry Kane to be fouled. Bayern average 7.3 corners in the Bundesliga, and they have to push for the win here, while Kane has drawn more fouls in the Bundesliga than any other Bayern player, 33 in all.
Bayern aren't in great shape, but they have won 12 of their last 15 competitive home matches, and should have enough quality to expose Lazio's flaws.
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