Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich: Weakened Germans will still be strong

Atletico 1.981/1 v Bayern Munich 3.814/5; The Draw 4.131/10
Tuesday 1 December, 20:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN

Atletico finding points tough to come by in Champions League

A defeat for Atletico Madrid against Bayern Munich could put them in a tricky position in Group A.

Atletico lost the reverse fixture 4-0 in Munich and though unbeaten since then, have not gathered points at the rate you'd expect. A 3-2 home win over Red Bull Salzburg was followed by two draws with Lokomotiv Moscow, who could move above Atletico and into second place on Tuesday.

The lack of Champions League wins is puzzling when you consider Atletico's excellent La Liga form.

Still unbeaten after nine games (W7 D2), Atletico's 1-0 win at Valencia on Saturday was their sixth straight victory. They are now only a point behind the leaders Real Sociedad, with two games in hand.

Bayern are top of the Bundesliga by two points after their 3-1 win at Stuttgart over the weekend. They have already won Group A, having tasted victory in all four of their group games.

Champions League holders are a big price

It's not difficult to see why Atletico are favourites here, but their odds of 1.981/1 do look slim.

They have home advantage and need a win. With Bayern already having won the group and facing a tough game against RB Leipzig at the weekend, Hans-Dieter Flick will select a weakened side.

While all that makes logical sense, does it mean that the best team in Europe should be as big as 3.814/5 against a side they beat comfortably when they last met? Even if Flick does rotate, he will be able to put out a very strong team. It's not often that the Champions League holders are available at such odds and it's worth taking a chance on them. Bayern are 2.021/1 to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market.