AC Milan v Newcastle Tips: Back Leao in 4/1 Bet Builder

• Experienced Milan can take victory at 2.6813/8

• Rafael Leao to net in a Milan win is a BB play at 4/15.00

• Read Betfair's new 90 minute payout offer here

AC Milan v Newcastle
Tuesday, 17:45
Live on TNT Sports 1

Milan coming in off derby mauling

If Milan wanted to give themselves a boost going into this year's Champions League, a 5-1 derby hammering against local rivals Inter was hardly it.

The result looks awful on paper and Milan weren't good at all. But maybe some context is needed before Newcastle fans get too excited.

Inter have won four out of four in Serie A this season, scoring 13 and conceding just one. And that was their fifth straight win against Milan, the first of those being achieved with clean sheets. Basically, they have their number.

Before that miserable reverse, Milan had won their first three domestic matches and the only time they used the home dressing room the Rossoneri blasted Torino 4-1.

Magpies relieved after welcome win

Newcastle kicked off the season by being on the right end of a 5-1 scoreline as they swept aside Aston Villa in style.

But that was followed by a hat-trick of defeats against Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton. Yes, that's three of the current top five but you can't just lose to all the good teams. Eyebrows were starting to be raised.

Therefore there was much relief for Eddie Howe when Newcastle ground out a 1-0 home win over Brentford on Saturday evening. It wasn't pretty and they were gifted Callum Wilson's winning penalty but some confidence was rebuilt.

And that's a good way to go into an extremely tough - and yet exciting - Champions League group which also features Paris St Germain and Borussia Dortmund.

Market predicts Newcastle to advance

Despite being in the Group of Death alongside teams with vastly more know-how in Europe, the Magpies are second favourites in the group betting.

Those Group F odds read: Paris SG 2.245/4, Newcastle 3.814/5, AC Milan 5.14/1 and Dortmund 5.59/2.

A reminder that this is Newcastle's first Champions League game for over 20 years and Howe has no managerial experience at this level.

Also note that Milan have only been eliminated from the first round group stage in one of their last 14 Champions League campaigns.

Experienced Milan worth a bet

It may well be that Newcastle at a packed and vociferous St. James' Park will be quite the force.

But I can't help but think they'll be vulnerable in a fixture like this while they try and find their feet at the highest level.

In which case Milan at 2.6813/8 look worth a play. Newcastle are 2.829/5 and The Draw 3.613/5. I'm surprised the two teams are so close in the betting to be honest and maybe there's an overreaction to Milan's 5-1 defeat to Inter.

Newcastle have lost both their away games in the Premier League this season and this will be a baptism of fire for Howe and assistant Jason Tindall.

True, former Milan man Sandro Tonali will provide calm and some useful insights into the opposition but he missed Italy's win over Ukraine and Newcastle's victory over Bournemouth which isn't ideal.

Let's not forget that Milan made the semi-finals of this tournament last year (losing to Inter - again!) and scored home wins over Tottenham and eventual Serie A winners Napoli on the way.

Look to Leao

There wasn't exactly a long list of candidates but Rafael Leao was Milan's best player against Inter. He provided his usual threat coming off the left and took his goal well to narrow the deficit to 2-1 before Inter pulled away.

Leao also netted what proved the decisive second goal in the recent 2-1 away win at Roma while he netted 16 times for Milan last season.

On the Bet Builder Leao to score in Milan win pays 4/15.00 and I'll take it. For a bigger price, Leao to score first in a Milan win is just under 1211/1.

If he plays, Tonali to score against his old club in a Draw is 30.029/1.

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