Atletico Madrid are not in the best of form, but Dan Fitch nonetheless expects the La Liga title holders to dictate the terms of their game against AC Milan.
"Despite the fact that Atletico are not playing that well, they have only conceded two goals over the past four games."
AC Milan 2.915/8 v Atletico Madrid 2.6413/8; The Draw 3.39/4
Tuesday 28 September, 20:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN
Spanish and Italian giants meet
Serie A title contenders AC Milan host the reigning La Liga champions Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.
AC Milan beat Spezia 2-1 on Saturday to extend their unbeaten start to their domestic season to six games (W5 D1). They lost their first match in the Champions League, but were ahead away at Liverpool, before losing 3-2.
It's unfortunate for Milan that Group B features so many strong teams, as in other groups they would be sure qualifiers for the last-16. Now they take on Atletico Madrid, who are not in the best form, but have the quality to beat anyone on their day.
Diego Simeone's team lost 1-0 at Alaves over the weekend. They drew 0-0 in their opening Champions League game at home to Porto, which means that they have only won one of their last four games (D2 L1).
Goals scarce at Atletico
Atletico Madrid are the narrow favourites at 2.6413/8, with AC Milan at 2.915/8 and the draw at 3.39/4.
Given the respective form of these teams, it would probably make sense if these odds were reversed, as Milan have home advantage. Yet with Atletico having more Champions League experience in recent seasons, this game really could go any way and it would probably make sense to avoid the results markets.
Despite the fact that Atletico are not playing that well, they have only conceded two goals over the past four games. Under 2.5 goals is 1.84/5 and has landed in three of Atletico's last four games. The doubt will be that AC Milan are scoring plenty of goals. Both teams to score is 1.910/11, but when Atletico are involved, the game tends to be played on their terms.
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